Predictions / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 / Peña Balsamaiso vs UD Logroñés II

Prediction Audit: Peña Balsamaiso vs UD Logroñés II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Peña Balsamaiso Peña Balsamaiso
May 10, 2026 - 10:00
0 1.45
5 1.25
xG Accuracy: 24%
UD Logroñés II UD Logroñés II

The model missed the final outcome (UD Logroñés II win 0–5).

The model had projected Peña Balsamaiso at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 draw UD Logroñés II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-2, 0-3, 0-1, 1-2, 1-3 0-5 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned draw; match finished UD Logroñés II
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was UD Logroñés II win 0–5, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 04, 2026 · 03:36 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Peña Balsamaiso 1.45 — UD Logroñés II 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result UD Logroñés II win · 0–5
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 11:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2605893

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result UD Logroñés II win · Peña Balsamaiso 0–5 UD Logroñés II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 16
  • Fixture: Peña Balsamaiso vs UD Logroñés II
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 0.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 50.0%
  • xG (showing): Peña Balsamaiso 1.45 — UD Logroñés II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 34.0% · Over 2.5 66.0%); BTTS No (Yes 45.3% · No 54.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 45.3% · No 54.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-2 (11.7%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 UD Logroñés II 34 26 8 0 86
2 Varea 34 22 7 5 73
3 Arnedo 34 21 9 4 72
4 Calahorra 34 17 12 5 63
5 Oyonesa 34 18 7 9 61
6 Anguiano 34 17 9 8 60
7 Haro Deportivo 34 14 9 11 51
8 Agoncillo 34 13 8 13 47
9 Vianés 34 11 8 14 42
10 Yagüe 34 9 13 12 40
11 San Marcial 34 10 9 15 39
12 La Calzada 34 10 8 16 38
13 Berceo 34 10 8 15 38
14 Comillas 34 11 6 18 38
15 Pradejón 34 9 8 17 35
16 Villegas 34 7 8 20 29
17 Autol 34 4 6 24 18
18 Peña Balsamaiso 34 0 11 23 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 UD Logroñés II 34 99 22 +77 86
2 Calahorra 34 86 26 +60 63
3 Arnedo 34 72 26 +46 72
4 Agoncillo 34 59 49 +10 47
5 Oyonesa 34 54 41 +13 61
6 Haro Deportivo 34 54 46 +8 51
7 Varea 34 51 25 +26 73
8 Anguiano 34 49 36 +13 60
9 Yagüe 34 48 52 -4 40
10 Berceo 34 42 50 -8 38
11 Vianés 34 39 51 -12 42
12 La Calzada 34 39 55 -16 38
13 San Marcial 34 39 59 -20 39
14 Villegas 34 36 66 -30 29
15 Comillas 34 32 58 -26 38
16 Pradejón 34 30 48 -18 35
17 Peña Balsamaiso 34 27 86 -59 11
18 Autol 34 20 80 -60 18
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 Predictions