Predictions / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 / Villegas vs UD Logroñés II

Prediction Audit: Villegas vs UD Logroñés II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Villegas Villegas
Mar 08, 2026 - 11:00
2 1.49
5 1.23
xG Accuracy: 31%
UD Logroñés II UD Logroñés II

The model missed the final outcome (UD Logroñés II win 2–5).

The model had projected Villegas at 43.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Villegas UD Logroñés II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 2-5 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.72) — 7 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Villegas; match finished UD Logroñés II
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was UD Logroñés II win 2–5, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • xG · Villegas 1.49 — UD Logroñés II 1.23
  2. Mar 08, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result UD Logroñés II win · 2–5
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 06:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1558034

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result UD Logroñés II win · Villegas 2–5 UD Logroñés II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 Matches Track Villegas Next Match Prediction Track UD Logroñés II Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 UD Logroñés II 34 26 8 0 86
2 Varea 34 22 7 5 73
3 Arnedo 34 21 9 4 72
4 Calahorra 34 17 12 5 63
5 Oyonesa 34 18 7 9 61
6 Anguiano 34 17 9 8 60
7 Haro Deportivo 34 14 9 11 51
8 Agoncillo 34 13 8 13 47
9 Vianés 34 11 8 14 42
10 Yagüe 34 9 13 12 40
11 San Marcial 34 10 9 15 39
12 La Calzada 34 10 8 16 38
13 Berceo 34 10 8 15 38
14 Comillas 34 11 6 18 38
15 Pradejón 34 9 8 17 35
16 Villegas 34 7 8 20 29
17 Autol 34 4 6 24 18
18 Peña Balsamaiso 34 0 11 23 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 UD Logroñés II 34 99 22 +77 86
2 Calahorra 34 86 26 +60 63
3 Arnedo 34 72 26 +46 72
4 Agoncillo 34 59 49 +10 47
5 Oyonesa 34 54 41 +13 61
6 Haro Deportivo 34 54 46 +8 51
7 Varea 34 51 25 +26 73
8 Anguiano 34 49 36 +13 60
9 Yagüe 34 48 52 -4 40
10 Berceo 34 42 50 -8 38
11 Vianés 34 39 51 -12 42
12 La Calzada 34 39 55 -16 38
13 San Marcial 34 39 59 -20 39
14 Villegas 34 36 66 -30 29
15 Comillas 34 32 58 -26 38
16 Pradejón 34 30 48 -18 35
17 Peña Balsamaiso 34 27 86 -59 11
18 Autol 34 20 80 -60 18
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 Predictions