Predictions / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 / Diocesano vs Jerez

Prediction Audit: Diocesano vs Jerez Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Diocesano Diocesano
Jan 18, 2026 - 11:00
1 0.74
5 0.61
xG Accuracy: 28%
Jerez Jerez

The model missed the final outcome (Jerez win 1–5).

The model had projected Draw at 42.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Draw Jerez ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 1-5 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Jerez win 1–5, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • xG · Diocesano 0.74 — Jerez 0.61
  2. Jan 18, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Jerez win · 1–5
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 04:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3629626

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Jerez win · Diocesano 1–5 Jerez
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Don Benito 34 21 8 5 71
2 Badajoz 34 23 5 6 71
3 Moralo 34 17 11 6 62
4 Azuaga 34 18 8 8 62
5 Jaraíz 34 16 11 7 59
6 Cabeza Buey 34 15 12 7 57
7 Villafranca 34 16 7 11 55
8 Villanovense 34 15 8 11 53
9 Montijo 34 13 7 14 46
10 Jerez 34 8 17 9 41
11 Llerenense 34 11 8 15 41
12 Puebla Calzada 34 9 11 14 38
13 Santa Amalia 34 9 7 18 34
14 Gévora 34 8 9 17 33
15 Atlético Pueblonuevo 34 9 6 19 33
16 Diocesano 34 6 12 16 30
17 Montehermoso 34 5 8 21 23
18 Calamonte 34 3 13 18 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Don Benito 34 70 22 +48 71
2 Badajoz 34 64 27 +37 71
3 Jerez 34 56 51 +5 41
4 Moralo 34 54 32 +22 62
5 Azuaga 34 53 31 +22 62
6 Jaraíz 34 53 33 +20 59
7 Cabeza Buey 34 45 29 +16 57
8 Villanovense 34 45 36 +9 53
9 Villafranca 34 45 40 +5 55
10 Montijo 34 43 42 +1 46
11 Llerenense 34 35 44 -9 41
12 Puebla Calzada 34 35 48 -13 38
13 Diocesano 34 33 63 -30 30
14 Gévora 34 32 53 -21 33
15 Santa Amalia 34 30 52 -22 34
16 Atlético Pueblonuevo 34 29 55 -26 33
17 Calamonte 34 25 47 -22 22
18 Montehermoso 34 24 66 -42 23
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 Predictions