1X2 Model EV
- Lean
- Llosetense
- Model probability
- 41.8%
- Market probability
- 52.5%
- Difference
- -10.7 pp
- Risk-adjusted EV (P1.5)
- -19.2%
No Value Edge
Llosetense vs Mercadal Prediction
Model lean is not a Primary bet — one answer only below.
Selective Lean - No Primary Bet
5.6/10
OddsGPT AI Confidence Score measures prediction reliability using AI probability, market signals, xG data, and performance indicators. A higher score reflects stronger model confidence and data support, helping users identify higher-quality opportunities.
OddsGPT AI Confidence Score measures prediction reliability using AI probability, market signals, xG data, and performance indicators. A higher score reflects stronger model confidence and data support, helping users identify higher-quality opportunities.
Reason
Market Quality Risk
Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).
Other factors
- Calibration Risk
Consensus EV
+10.2%
Calculated using a market-adjusted probability. The model probability is partially adjusted toward market expectation to reduce false positives.
Decision Model vs Market Gap
10.7 pp
Difference between the Decision Model probability and the no-vig market probability for the selected outcome.
Reliability
58/100 · Moderate
Reliability measures the quality of the prediction signal. It considers: • model validation • market alignment • data quality • bookmaker coverage • market movement consistency It does not represent the probability of winning.
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Prediction Overview
Base Prediction Model
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
Raw match outcome probabilities from the xG-based scoring model.
Decision Model vs Market
The Decision Model applies additional calibration (including low-score correlation adjustments) to produce the probability used by the Decision Engine for value calculation, EV estimation, and Primary Bet decisions.
The Decision Model applies additional calibration (including low-score correlation adjustments) to produce the probability used by the Decision Engine for value calculation, EV estimation, and Primary Bet decisions.
| Decision Model | 41.8% |
| Market (no-vig) | 52.5% |
| Difference | +10.7 pp |
Market aligns with model lean
Why Is The Bet Blocked?
Positive factors
- ✓Risk-adjusted EV passes Primary threshold (≥ +5.0%)+10.2%
- ✓Clear directional model signal: Llosetense
Risk factors
- ✗Elevated xG uncertaintyModel confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty
- ✗Market moved against Mercadal4.2 → 4.33 · ↑ +3.1%
- ✗Outlier price excluded from Primary+51% EV → consensus +10.2%
Market Intelligence
Market drift · Mercadal · ↑ +3.1%
Breadth
1/10
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +3.1%
Move Score
8 (C)
Move Score (0–100) grades how strong a market move is — steam (shortening) or drift (lengthening). A+ · ≥75 with 3+ books reacting — strongest multi-book conviction A · ≥60 with 2+ books — strong multi-book signal B · ≥40 — moderate move; confirmation incomplete C · Below 40, dead/illiquid, or volatile — limited conviction
PhaseVolatile
StatusVolatile market
CLVWaiting for Close
Ref bookBet365
Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.
Market Decisions (Model vs Market)
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV.
Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV. Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Over / Under 2.5
- Lean
- Over 2.5
- Model probability (Over)
- 50.6%
- Market probability (Over)
- 46.5%
- Difference
- +4.1 pp
- Risk-adjusted EV
- -5.7%
No Value Edge
Total Goals (Model)
BTTS (Yes)
- Lean
- Yes
- Model probability
- 56.2%
- Market probability
- 48.9%
- Difference
- +7.3 pp
- Risk-adjusted EV
- -6.3%
No Value Edge
BTTS Yes 56.2%
BTTS No 43.8%
Correct Score
- Top Score
- 1-1
- Model probability (1-1)
- 12.2%
- Market probability (1-1)
- —
- Difference
- —
- EV @ Market Odds
- —
No Value
Top 5 Model Scores
- 1-1 12.2%
- 1-0 9.7%
- 2-1 8.8%
- 0-1 8.4%
- 1-2 7.6%
Match Phase: Upcoming
Decision Lifecycle
Current stage: Market monitoring
-
Prediction Generated
-
Market ComparedEntry 4.33
-
Validation Passed
-
Closing RecordedClosing Waiting Expected before kickoff
-
CLV EvaluatedCLV Pending
Final Verdict
Selective Lean - No Primary Bet
The Decision Model estimates Llosetense at 41.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.5%.
Decision Summary
- Decision Model identifies Llosetense as the value side (41.8%)
- Market broadly agrees with the direction
- Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary
- Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty
Action
Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.
OddsGPT Decision Engine 2.5.0 · Educational framing only · Not personalised advice
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