Predictions / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 / Pozoblanco vs Córdoba II

Prediction Audit: Pozoblanco vs Córdoba II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Pozoblanco Pozoblanco
May 10, 2026 - 10:00
2 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 70%
Córdoba II Córdoba II

AI correctly predicted the Draw.

The match finished 2–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 draw Draw ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Draw 2–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 04, 2026 · 03:17 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Pozoblanco 1.45 — Córdoba II 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 13:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1600576

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Pozoblanco 2–2 Córdoba II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 10
  • Fixture: Pozoblanco vs Córdoba II
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Pozoblanco 1.45 — Córdoba II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 54.4% · Over 2.5 45.6%); BTTS No (Yes 48.2% · No 51.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 48.2% · No 51.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.8%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ciudad de Lucena 34 22 7 5 73
2 Dos Hermanas 34 18 6 10 60
3 Atlético Central 34 15 10 9 55
4 Bollullos 34 14 11 9 53
5 Ceuta II 34 14 10 10 52
6 Linense 34 13 13 8 52
7 Cádiz II 34 14 10 10 52
8 Conil 34 15 7 12 52
9 Córdoba II 34 12 8 14 44
10 Utrera 34 12 8 14 44
11 Pozoblanco 34 10 13 11 43
12 Chiclana 34 10 13 11 43
13 San Roque Lepe 34 10 13 11 43
14 Recreativo Huelva II 34 10 10 14 40
15 Tomares 34 10 9 15 39
16 Sevilla III 34 10 8 16 38
17 Castilleja 34 6 9 19 27
18 Coria CF 34 4 9 21 21
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Ciudad de Lucena 34 69 25 +44 73
2 Dos Hermanas 34 69 39 +30 60
3 Cádiz II 34 50 38 +12 52
4 Linense 34 45 32 +13 52
5 Córdoba II 34 44 44 0 44
6 Bollullos 34 43 35 +8 53
7 Conil 34 43 44 -1 52
8 Utrera 34 40 47 -7 44
9 San Roque Lepe 34 39 39 0 43
10 Pozoblanco 34 39 44 -5 43
11 Chiclana 34 39 45 -6 43
12 Ceuta II 34 38 38 0 52
13 Atlético Central 34 36 29 +7 55
14 Recreativo Huelva II 34 36 43 -7 40
15 Sevilla III 34 34 41 -7 38
16 Tomares 34 34 46 -12 39
17 Castilleja 34 28 62 -34 27
18 Coria CF 34 24 59 -35 21
Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 Predictions