Predictions / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 / Pozuelo Alarcón vs Tres Cantos

Prediction Audit: Pozuelo Alarcón vs Tres Cantos Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Pozuelo Alarcón Pozuelo Alarcón
May 10, 2026 - 09:30
3 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
Tres Cantos Tres Cantos

AI correctly predicted the Pozuelo Alarcón win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Pozuelo Alarcón Pozuelo Alarcón ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Pozuelo Alarcón win 3–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 04, 2026 · 04:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Pozuelo Alarcón 1.45 — Tres Cantos 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Pozuelo Alarcón win · 3–1
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 00:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3221766

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Pozuelo Alarcón win · Pozuelo Alarcón 3–1 Tres Cantos
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
  • Fixture: Pozuelo Alarcón vs Tres Cantos
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Pozuelo Alarcón 1.45 — Tres Cantos 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 44.4% · No 55.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 44.4% · No 55.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 A Madrid III 34 18 10 6 64
2 Trival Valderas 34 18 6 10 60
3 Torrejón 34 17 9 8 60
4 Las Rozas 34 16 8 10 56
5 Leganés II 34 15 9 10 54
6 Unión Adarve 34 15 8 11 53
7 Móstoles 34 14 9 11 51
8 SS Reyes II 34 12 13 9 49
9 Pozuelo Alarcón 34 12 12 10 48
10 Galapagar 34 11 13 10 46
11 Alcobendas Sport 34 12 9 13 45
12 Villanueva Pardillo 34 13 5 16 44
13 Alcorcón II 34 11 11 12 44
14 Villaverde-Boetticher 34 10 13 11 43
15 Carabanchel 34 9 11 14 38
16 Tres Cantos 34 10 3 21 33
17 AD Parla 34 7 6 21 27
18 Racing Madrid 34 5 7 22 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 A Madrid III 34 83 46 +37 64
2 Leganés II 34 63 33 +30 54
3 Las Rozas 34 58 42 +16 56
4 Torrejón 34 57 46 +11 60
5 Móstoles 34 51 45 +6 51
6 Trival Valderas 34 50 36 +14 60
7 Unión Adarve 34 48 42 +6 53
8 SS Reyes II 34 45 35 +10 49
9 Alcobendas Sport 34 45 49 -4 45
10 Galapagar 34 42 47 -5 46
11 Pozuelo Alarcón 34 40 33 +7 48
12 Tres Cantos 34 40 65 -25 33
13 Villanueva Pardillo 34 39 45 -6 44
14 Alcorcón II 34 37 34 +3 44
15 Villaverde-Boetticher 34 32 44 -12 43
16 Racing Madrid 34 31 76 -45 22
17 Carabanchel 34 30 36 -6 38
18 AD Parla 34 29 66 -37 27
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 Predictions