Predictions / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 / Bezana vs Guarnizo

Prediction Audit: Bezana vs Guarnizo Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bezana Bezana
May 09, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
Guarnizo Guarnizo

AI correctly predicted the Draw.

The match finished 1–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 draw Draw ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Draw 1–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 04, 2026 · 03:47 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Bezana 1.45 — Guarnizo 1.25
  2. May 09, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 23:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1657489

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Bezana 1–1 Guarnizo
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 3
  • Fixture: Bezana vs Guarnizo
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Bezana 1.45 — Guarnizo 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 59.6% · Over 2.5 40.4%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.2%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gimnástica Torrelavega 34 25 6 3 81
2 Laredo 34 21 8 5 71
3 Tropezón 34 21 4 9 67
4 Guarnizo 34 19 9 6 66
5 Escobedo 34 21 2 11 65
6 Vimenor 34 17 8 9 59
7 Atlético Albericia 34 17 5 12 56
8 Cayón 34 17 5 12 56
9 Torina 34 15 8 11 53
10 Bezana 34 13 8 13 47
11 Castro 34 10 8 16 38
12 Selaya 34 8 9 17 33
13 Revilla 34 8 7 19 31
14 Barquereño 34 8 6 20 30
15 Colindres 34 6 10 18 28
16 Cartes 34 6 10 18 28
17 Montañas Pas 34 6 8 20 26
18 Noja 34 4 7 23 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Gimnástica Torrelavega 34 85 15 +70 81
2 Escobedo 34 65 43 +22 65
3 Laredo 34 63 28 +35 71
4 Atlético Albericia 34 61 45 +16 56
5 Tropezón 34 50 27 +23 67
6 Cayón 34 50 41 +9 56
7 Guarnizo 34 47 26 +21 66
8 Vimenor 34 47 36 +11 59
9 Castro 34 44 47 -3 38
10 Bezana 34 43 38 +5 47
11 Torina 34 39 40 -1 53
12 Barquereño 34 37 64 -27 30
13 Revilla 34 35 63 -28 31
14 Montañas Pas 34 35 87 -52 26
15 Selaya 34 32 43 -11 33
16 Cartes 34 28 52 -24 28
17 Colindres 34 27 47 -20 28
18 Noja 34 22 68 -46 19
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 Predictions