Predictions / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 / Selaya vs Gimnástica Torrelavega

Prediction Audit: Selaya vs Gimnástica Torrelavega Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Selaya Selaya
Feb 08, 2026 - 15:15
0 1.49
4 1.23
xG Accuracy: 31%
Gimnástica Torrelavega Gimnástica Torrelavega

The model missed the final outcome (Gimnástica Torrelavega win 0–4).

The model had projected Selaya at 43.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Selaya Gimnástica Torrelavega ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.72) — 4 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Selaya; match finished Gimnástica Torrelavega

Market lesson

The full-time result was Gimnástica Torrelavega win 0–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • xG · Selaya 1.49 — Gimnástica Torrelavega 1.23
  2. Feb 08, 2026 · 15:15 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Gimnástica Torrelavega win · 0–4
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 12:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2610964

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds 2.31
CLV Pending
Final Result Gimnástica Torrelavega win · Selaya 0–4 Gimnástica Torrelavega
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 43.2%
  • Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=2)

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 Matches Track Selaya Next Match Prediction Track Gimnástica Torrelavega Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gimnástica Torrelavega 34 25 6 3 81
2 Laredo 34 21 8 5 71
3 Tropezón 34 21 4 9 67
4 Guarnizo 34 19 9 6 66
5 Escobedo 34 21 2 11 65
6 Vimenor 34 17 8 9 59
7 Atlético Albericia 34 17 5 12 56
8 Cayón 34 17 5 12 56
9 Torina 34 15 8 11 53
10 Bezana 34 13 8 13 47
11 Castro 34 10 8 16 38
12 Selaya 34 8 9 17 33
13 Revilla 34 8 7 19 31
14 Barquereño 34 8 6 20 30
15 Colindres 34 6 10 18 28
16 Cartes 34 6 10 18 28
17 Montañas Pas 34 6 8 20 26
18 Noja 34 4 7 23 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Gimnástica Torrelavega 34 85 15 +70 81
2 Escobedo 34 65 43 +22 65
3 Laredo 34 63 28 +35 71
4 Atlético Albericia 34 61 45 +16 56
5 Tropezón 34 50 27 +23 67
6 Cayón 34 50 41 +9 56
7 Guarnizo 34 47 26 +21 66
8 Vimenor 34 47 36 +11 59
9 Castro 34 44 47 -3 38
10 Bezana 34 43 38 +5 47
11 Torina 34 39 40 -1 53
12 Barquereño 34 37 64 -27 30
13 Revilla 34 35 63 -28 31
14 Montañas Pas 34 35 87 -52 26
15 Selaya 34 32 43 -11 33
16 Cartes 34 28 52 -24 28
17 Colindres 34 27 47 -20 28
18 Noja 34 22 68 -46 19
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 Predictions