Predictions / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 / Villalbés vs Polvorín

Prediction Audit: Villalbés vs Polvorín Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Villalbés Villalbés
May 10, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 80%
Polvorín Polvorín

AI correctly predicted the Villalbés win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Villalbés Villalbés ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw -3.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Villalbés 41.8% 38.6% +3.1 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 29.0% -3.4 pp Aligned
Polvorín 32.6% 32.3% +0.2 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Villalbés win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Villalbés win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 10, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Villalbés 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Polvorín 32.6%
    • xG · Villalbés 1.45 — Polvorín 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Villalbés 2.30 · Draw 3.06 · Polvorín 2.75
    • Implied 1X2 · Villalbés 38.6% · Draw 29.0% · Polvorín 32.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 10, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Villalbés 2.30 · Draw 3.06 · Polvorín 2.75
    • Implied 1X2 · Villalbés 38.6% · Draw 29.0% · Polvorín 32.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 10, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Villalbés win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 83/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 16:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2628082

Closing Odds 3.06
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Villalbés win · Villalbés 2–1 Polvorín
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 1
  • Fixture: Villalbés vs Polvorín
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Villalbés 1.45 — Polvorín 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 67.7% · Implied: 60.2% · Probability edge: +7.5 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 48.2% · No 51.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (13.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Arosa 34 20 10 4 70
2 Compostela 34 19 11 4 68
3 Atlético Arteixo 34 16 10 8 58
4 Estradense 34 14 11 9 53
5 Villalbés 34 13 13 8 52
6 Boiro 34 13 12 9 51
7 Celta de Vigo III 34 13 12 9 51
8 Somozas 34 13 12 9 51
9 Coruña 34 12 12 10 48
10 Polvorín 34 12 12 10 48
11 Barco 34 13 7 14 46
12 Alondras 34 12 9 13 45
13 Celtiga 34 11 7 16 40
14 Viveiro 34 9 11 14 38
15 Silva 34 9 9 16 36
16 Cambados 34 4 14 16 26
17 Noia 34 6 7 21 25
18 Barbadás 34 4 7 23 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Arosa 34 58 35 +23 70
2 Celta de Vigo III 34 57 42 +15 51
3 Compostela 34 55 28 +27 68
4 Atlético Arteixo 34 54 44 +10 58
5 Coruña 34 48 42 +6 48
6 Celtiga 34 47 48 -1 40
7 Estradense 34 46 33 +13 53
8 Boiro 34 45 29 +16 51
9 Alondras 34 45 48 -3 45
10 Polvorín 34 41 35 +6 48
11 Somozas 34 37 32 +5 51
12 Villalbés 34 36 29 +7 52
13 Silva 34 36 48 -12 36
14 Barco 34 35 41 -6 46
15 Noia 34 28 57 -29 25
16 Viveiro 34 27 41 -14 38
17 Barbadás 34 25 69 -44 19
18 Cambados 34 24 43 -19 26
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions