Predictions / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 / Coruña vs Cambados

Prediction Audit: Coruña vs Cambados Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Coruña Coruña
May 10, 2026 - 10:30
4 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 46%
Cambados Cambados

AI correctly predicted the Coruña win.

The match finished 4–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Coruña Coruña ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Coruña win 4–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 04, 2026 · 03:15 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Coruña 1.45 — Cambados 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 10:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Coruña win · 4–1
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 03:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1813485

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Coruña win · Coruña 4–1 Cambados
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 1
  • Fixture: Coruña vs Cambados
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Coruña 1.45 — Cambados 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 62.3% · Over 2.5 37.7%); BTTS No (Yes 34.4% · No 65.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 34.4% · No 65.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (13.9%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Arosa 34 20 10 4 70
2 Compostela 34 19 11 4 68
3 Atlético Arteixo 34 16 10 8 58
4 Estradense 34 14 11 9 53
5 Villalbés 34 13 13 8 52
6 Boiro 34 13 12 9 51
7 Celta de Vigo III 34 13 12 9 51
8 Somozas 34 13 12 9 51
9 Coruña 34 12 12 10 48
10 Polvorín 34 12 12 10 48
11 Barco 34 13 7 14 46
12 Alondras 34 12 9 13 45
13 Celtiga 34 11 7 16 40
14 Viveiro 34 9 11 14 38
15 Silva 34 9 9 16 36
16 Cambados 34 4 14 16 26
17 Noia 34 6 7 21 25
18 Barbadás 34 4 7 23 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Arosa 34 58 35 +23 70
2 Celta de Vigo III 34 57 42 +15 51
3 Compostela 34 55 28 +27 68
4 Atlético Arteixo 34 54 44 +10 58
5 Coruña 34 48 42 +6 48
6 Celtiga 34 47 48 -1 40
7 Estradense 34 46 33 +13 53
8 Boiro 34 45 29 +16 51
9 Alondras 34 45 48 -3 45
10 Polvorín 34 41 35 +6 48
11 Somozas 34 37 32 +5 51
12 Villalbés 34 36 29 +7 52
13 Silva 34 36 48 -12 36
14 Barco 34 35 41 -6 46
15 Noia 34 28 57 -29 25
16 Viveiro 34 27 41 -14 38
17 Barbadás 34 25 69 -44 19
18 Cambados 34 24 43 -19 26
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions