Predictions / Football / Tanzania. Ligi kuu Bara / Mtibwa Sugar vs JKT Tanzania

Prediction Audit: Mtibwa Sugar vs JKT Tanzania Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Mtibwa Sugar Mtibwa Sugar
May 24, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 70%
JKT Tanzania JKT Tanzania

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Mtibwa Sugar at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Mtibwa Sugar Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Mtibwa Sugar considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Mtibwa Sugar +13.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Mtibwa Sugar 41.8% 28.6% +13.2 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 32.1% -6.4 pp Market Higher
JKT Tanzania 32.6% 39.3% -6.8 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Mtibwa Sugar's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 28.6%, a difference of 13.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Mtibwa Sugar.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Mtibwa Sugar by 13.2 percentage points (28.6% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 24, 2026 · 18:23 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Mtibwa Sugar 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · JKT Tanzania 32.6%
    • xG · Mtibwa Sugar 1.45 — JKT Tanzania 1.25
  2. May 24, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Mtibwa Sugar 3.11 · Draw 2.77 · JKT Tanzania 2.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Mtibwa Sugar 28.6% · Draw 32.1% · JKT Tanzania 39.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 24, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Mtibwa Sugar 3.11 · Draw 2.77 · JKT Tanzania 2.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Mtibwa Sugar 28.6% · Draw 32.1% · JKT Tanzania 39.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 24, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 11/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 00:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1660359

Closing Odds 3.11
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Mtibwa Sugar 2–2 JKT Tanzania
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Ligi kuu Bara
  • Fixture: Mtibwa Sugar vs JKT Tanzania
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-24 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Mtibwa Sugar 1.45 — JKT Tanzania 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 63.6% · Over 2.5 36.4%); BTTS No (Yes 43.7% · No 56.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 43.7% · No 56.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (14.0%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Ligi kuu Bara Ligi kuu Bara — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Young Africans 30 23 6 1 75
2 Simba 30 22 7 1 73
3 Azam 30 18 10 2 64
4 Singida Fountain Gate 30 15 5 10 50
5 Kitayosce 30 11 10 9 43
6 JKT Tanzania 30 10 12 8 42
7 Pamba Jiji 30 9 9 12 36
8 Coastal Union 30 9 9 12 36
9 Dodoma Jiji 30 8 11 11 35
10 Namungo 30 7 13 10 34
11 Mashujaa 30 7 12 11 33
12 Singida Big Stars 30 9 6 15 33
13 Tanzania Prisons 30 9 5 16 32
14 Mbeya City 30 7 9 14 30
15 Mtibwa Sugar 30 6 9 15 27
16 KMC 30 2 3 25 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Young Africans 30 71 9 +62 75
2 Simba 30 54 11 +43 73
3 Singida Fountain Gate 30 47 35 +12 50
4 Azam 30 46 12 +34 64
5 Kitayosce 30 33 28 +5 43
6 Pamba Jiji 30 32 35 -3 36
7 Coastal Union 30 31 37 -6 36
8 JKT Tanzania 30 30 33 -3 42
9 Namungo 30 25 32 -7 34
10 Dodoma Jiji 30 25 36 -11 35
11 Singida Big Stars 30 25 44 -19 33
12 Mtibwa Sugar 30 25 48 -23 27
13 Mbeya City 30 24 41 -17 30
14 Tanzania Prisons 30 23 41 -18 32
15 KMC 30 16 53 -37 9
16 Mashujaa 30 15 27 -12 33
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