Predictions / Football / Tanzania. Ligi kuu Bara / JKT Tanzania vs Singida Big Stars

Prediction Audit: JKT Tanzania vs Singida Big Stars Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

JKT Tanzania JKT Tanzania
May 21, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 70%
Singida Big Stars Singida Big Stars

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected JKT Tanzania at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 JKT Tanzania Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Singida Big Stars considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Singida Big Stars +15.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
JKT Tanzania 41.8% 54.5% -12.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 27.9% -2.3 pp Aligned
Singida Big Stars 32.6% 17.6% +15.0 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Singida Big Stars's win probability at 32.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 17.6%, a difference of 15.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Singida Big Stars.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on JKT Tanzania by 15.0 percentage points (26.8% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 21, 2026 · 18:16 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · JKT Tanzania 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Singida Big Stars 32.6%
    • xG · JKT Tanzania 1.45 — Singida Big Stars 1.25
  2. May 21, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · JKT Tanzania 1.63 · Draw 3.18 · Singida Big Stars 5.05
    • Implied 1X2 · JKT Tanzania 54.5% · Draw 27.9% · Singida Big Stars 17.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 21, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · JKT Tanzania 1.63 · Draw 3.18 · Singida Big Stars 5.05
    • Implied 1X2 · JKT Tanzania 54.5% · Draw 27.9% · Singida Big Stars 17.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 21, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 25/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 15:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3056914

Closing Odds 5.05
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · JKT Tanzania 2–2 Singida Big Stars
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Ligi kuu Bara
  • Fixture: JKT Tanzania vs Singida Big Stars
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-21 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): JKT Tanzania 1.45 — Singida Big Stars 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 66.3% · Implied: 61.2% · Probability edge: +5.1 pts · Est. EV: +4.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 38.6% · No 61.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (15.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Ligi kuu Bara Ligi kuu Bara — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Young Africans 30 23 6 1 75
2 Simba 30 22 7 1 73
3 Azam 30 18 10 2 64
4 Singida Fountain Gate 30 15 5 10 50
5 Kitayosce 30 11 10 9 43
6 JKT Tanzania 30 10 12 8 42
7 Pamba Jiji 30 9 9 12 36
8 Coastal Union 30 9 9 12 36
9 Dodoma Jiji 30 8 11 11 35
10 Namungo 30 7 13 10 34
11 Mashujaa 30 7 12 11 33
12 Singida Big Stars 30 9 6 15 33
13 Tanzania Prisons 30 9 5 16 32
14 Mbeya City 30 7 9 14 30
15 Mtibwa Sugar 30 6 9 15 27
16 KMC 30 2 3 25 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Young Africans 30 71 9 +62 75
2 Simba 30 54 11 +43 73
3 Singida Fountain Gate 30 47 35 +12 50
4 Azam 30 46 12 +34 64
5 Kitayosce 30 33 28 +5 43
6 Pamba Jiji 30 32 35 -3 36
7 Coastal Union 30 31 37 -6 36
8 JKT Tanzania 30 30 33 -3 42
9 Namungo 30 25 32 -7 34
10 Dodoma Jiji 30 25 36 -11 35
11 Singida Big Stars 30 25 44 -19 33
12 Mtibwa Sugar 30 25 48 -23 27
13 Mbeya City 30 24 41 -17 30
14 Tanzania Prisons 30 23 41 -18 32
15 KMC 30 16 53 -37 9
16 Mashujaa 30 15 27 -12 33
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