Predictions / Football / Tanzania. Ligi kuu Bara / Coastal Union vs Simba

Prediction Audit: Coastal Union vs Simba Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Coastal Union Coastal Union
May 21, 2026 - 15:30
1 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 72%
Simba Simba

The model missed the final outcome (Simba win 1–2).

The model had projected Coastal Union at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Coastal Union Simba ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 0-0, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Simba higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Simba -38.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Coastal Union 41.8% 9.8% +32.0 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 19.5% +6.1 pp Model Higher
Simba 32.6% 70.7% -38.1 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Simba's win probability at 70.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 38.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Simba win 1–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Coastal Union; match finished Simba

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Coastal Union by 38.1 percentage points (79.9% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 21, 2026 · 18:16 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Coastal Union 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Simba 32.6%
    • xG · Coastal Union 1.45 — Simba 1.25
  2. May 21, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Coastal Union 9.13 · Draw 4.56 · Simba 1.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Coastal Union 9.8% · Draw 19.5% · Simba 70.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 21, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Coastal Union 9.13 · Draw 4.56 · Simba 1.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Coastal Union 9.8% · Draw 19.5% · Simba 70.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 21, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Simba win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 30/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (38 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 8/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 00:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1661880

Closing Odds 1.26
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Simba win · Coastal Union 1–2 Simba
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Coastal Union; market prices Simba instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Coastal Union 1.45 xG vs Simba 1.25 → Coastal Union 41.8%
  • Market: Simba ~9.8% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 60.9% · Over 2.5 39.1%); BTTS Yes (Yes 44.2% · No 55.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Ligi kuu Bara Ligi kuu Bara — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Young Africans 30 23 6 1 75
2 Simba 30 22 7 1 73
3 Azam 30 18 10 2 64
4 Singida Fountain Gate 30 15 5 10 50
5 Kitayosce 30 11 10 9 43
6 JKT Tanzania 30 10 12 8 42
7 Pamba Jiji 30 9 9 12 36
8 Coastal Union 30 9 9 12 36
9 Dodoma Jiji 30 8 11 11 35
10 Namungo 30 7 13 10 34
11 Mashujaa 30 7 12 11 33
12 Singida Big Stars 30 9 6 15 33
13 Tanzania Prisons 30 9 5 16 32
14 Mbeya City 30 7 9 14 30
15 Mtibwa Sugar 30 6 9 15 27
16 KMC 30 2 3 25 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Young Africans 30 71 9 +62 75
2 Simba 30 54 11 +43 73
3 Singida Fountain Gate 30 47 35 +12 50
4 Azam 30 46 12 +34 64
5 Kitayosce 30 33 28 +5 43
6 Pamba Jiji 30 32 35 -3 36
7 Coastal Union 30 31 37 -6 36
8 JKT Tanzania 30 30 33 -3 42
9 Namungo 30 25 32 -7 34
10 Dodoma Jiji 30 25 36 -11 35
11 Singida Big Stars 30 25 44 -19 33
12 Mtibwa Sugar 30 25 48 -23 27
13 Mbeya City 30 24 41 -17 30
14 Tanzania Prisons 30 23 41 -18 32
15 KMC 30 16 53 -37 9
16 Mashujaa 30 15 27 -12 33
Ligi kuu Bara Tanzania. Ligi kuu Bara Predictions