Predictions / Football / Tanzania. Ligi kuu Bara / Mbeya City vs Coastal Union

Prediction Audit: Mbeya City vs Coastal Union Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Mbeya City Mbeya City
May 13, 2026 - 11:00
0 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 55%
Coastal Union Coastal Union

The model missed the final outcome (Coastal Union win 0–2).

The model had projected Mbeya City at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Mbeya City Coastal Union ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Coastal Union considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Coastal Union +8.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Mbeya City 41.8% 46.8% -5.0 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 29.5% -3.9 pp Aligned
Coastal Union 32.6% 23.7% +8.9 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Coastal Union's win probability at 32.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.7%, a difference of 8.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Coastal Union win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Coastal Union.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Mbeya City; match finished Coastal Union

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Mbeya City by 8.9 percentage points (32.9% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 13, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Mbeya City 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Coastal Union 32.6%
    • xG · Mbeya City 1.45 — Coastal Union 1.25
  2. May 13, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Mbeya City 1.90 · Draw 3.01 · Coastal Union 3.75
    • Implied 1X2 · Mbeya City 46.8% · Draw 29.5% · Coastal Union 23.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 13, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Mbeya City 1.90 · Draw 3.01 · Coastal Union 3.75
    • Implied 1X2 · Mbeya City 46.8% · Draw 29.5% · Coastal Union 23.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 13, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Coastal Union win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 55/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2989274

Closing Odds 3.75
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Coastal Union win · Mbeya City 0–2 Coastal Union
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Ligi kuu Bara
  • Fixture: Mbeya City vs Coastal Union
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-13 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Mbeya City 1.45 — Coastal Union 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 72.7% · Implied: 55.4% · Probability edge: +17.3 pts · Est. EV: +25.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 27.3% · No 72.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.3%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Ligi kuu Bara Ligi kuu Bara — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Young Africans 30 23 6 1 75
2 Simba 30 22 7 1 73
3 Azam 30 18 10 2 64
4 Singida Fountain Gate 30 15 5 10 50
5 Kitayosce 30 11 10 9 43
6 JKT Tanzania 30 10 12 8 42
7 Pamba Jiji 30 9 9 12 36
8 Coastal Union 30 9 9 12 36
9 Dodoma Jiji 30 8 11 11 35
10 Namungo 30 7 13 10 34
11 Mashujaa 30 7 12 11 33
12 Singida Big Stars 30 9 6 15 33
13 Tanzania Prisons 30 9 5 16 32
14 Mbeya City 30 7 9 14 30
15 Mtibwa Sugar 30 6 9 15 27
16 KMC 30 2 3 25 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Young Africans 30 71 9 +62 75
2 Simba 30 54 11 +43 73
3 Singida Fountain Gate 30 47 35 +12 50
4 Azam 30 46 12 +34 64
5 Kitayosce 30 33 28 +5 43
6 Pamba Jiji 30 32 35 -3 36
7 Coastal Union 30 31 37 -6 36
8 JKT Tanzania 30 30 33 -3 42
9 Namungo 30 25 32 -7 34
10 Dodoma Jiji 30 25 36 -11 35
11 Singida Big Stars 30 25 44 -19 33
12 Mtibwa Sugar 30 25 48 -23 27
13 Mbeya City 30 24 41 -17 30
14 Tanzania Prisons 30 23 41 -18 32
15 KMC 30 16 53 -37 9
16 Mashujaa 30 15 27 -12 33
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