The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Simba at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Simba Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simba | 41.8% | 32.3% | +9.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 25.7% | 37.7% | -12.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Young Africans | 32.6% | 30.0% | +2.5 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Draw's win probability at 37.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 25.7%, a difference of 12.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Draw than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Simba; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Simba by 12.0 percentage points (53.8% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Simba 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Young Africans 32.6%
- xG · Simba 1.45 — Young Africans 1.25
-
May 03, 2026 · 13:50 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Simba 2.75 · Draw 2.36 · Young Africans 2.96
- Implied 1X2 · Simba 32.3% · Draw 37.7% · Young Africans 30.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 03, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Simba 2.75 · Draw 2.36 · Young Africans 2.96
- Implied 1X2 · Simba 32.3% · Draw 37.7% · Young Africans 30.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 03, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Ligi kuu Bara — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Africans | 30 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 75 |
| 2 | Simba | 30 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 73 |
| 3 | Azam | 30 | 18 | 10 | 2 | 64 |
| 4 | Singida Fountain Gate | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 50 |
| 5 | Kitayosce | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 43 |
| 6 | JKT Tanzania | 30 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 42 |
| 7 | Pamba Jiji | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 36 |
| 8 | Coastal Union | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 36 |
| 9 | Dodoma Jiji | 30 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 35 |
| 10 | Namungo | 30 | 7 | 13 | 10 | 34 |
| 11 | Mashujaa | 30 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 33 |
| 12 | Singida Big Stars | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 33 |
| 13 | Tanzania Prisons | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 32 |
| 14 | Mbeya City | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 30 |
| 15 | Mtibwa Sugar | 30 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 27 |
| 16 | KMC | 30 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 9 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Africans | 30 | 71 | 9 | +62 | 75 |
| 2 | Simba | 30 | 54 | 11 | +43 | 73 |
| 3 | Singida Fountain Gate | 30 | 47 | 35 | +12 | 50 |
| 4 | Azam | 30 | 46 | 12 | +34 | 64 |
| 5 | Kitayosce | 30 | 33 | 28 | +5 | 43 |
| 6 | Pamba Jiji | 30 | 32 | 35 | -3 | 36 |
| 7 | Coastal Union | 30 | 31 | 37 | -6 | 36 |
| 8 | JKT Tanzania | 30 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 42 |
| 9 | Namungo | 30 | 25 | 32 | -7 | 34 |
| 10 | Dodoma Jiji | 30 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 35 |
| 11 | Singida Big Stars | 30 | 25 | 44 | -19 | 33 |
| 12 | Mtibwa Sugar | 30 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 27 |
| 13 | Mbeya City | 30 | 24 | 41 | -17 | 30 |
| 14 | Tanzania Prisons | 30 | 23 | 41 | -18 | 32 |
| 15 | KMC | 30 | 16 | 53 | -37 | 9 |
| 16 | Mashujaa | 30 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 33 |
