AI correctly predicted the Ironi Baka El Garbiya win.
The match finished 4–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
A
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Ironi Baka El Garbiya Ironi Baka El Garbiya ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 4-1 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.72) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Ironi Baka El Garbiya win 4–1).
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Ironi Baka El Garbiya 1.49 — Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 1.23
-
Feb 06, 2026 · 11:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ironi Baka El Garbiya win · 4–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Ironi Baka El Garbiya win · Ironi Baka El Garbiya 4–1 Maccabi Neve Sha'anan
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga Alef — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Kiryat Gat | 21 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 55 |
| 2 | FC Jerusalem | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 37 |
| 3 | Dimona | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 37 |
| 4 | Maccabi Yavne | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 36 |
| 5 | Maccabi Kiryat Malachi | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 35 |
| 6 | Tzeirey Tira | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 33 |
| 7 | Shimshon Tel Aviv | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 30 |
| 8 | Beitar Yavne | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 30 |
| 9 | Kfar Saba 1928 | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 29 |
| 10 | Maccabi Ashdod | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
| 11 | Holon Yermiyahu | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 24 |
| 12 | Hapoel Marmorek | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 24 |
| 13 | Hapoel Azor | 21 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 23 |
| 14 | Hapoel Herzliya | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 22 |
| 15 | Hapoel Ramat HaSharon | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 19 |
| 16 | Nordia Jerusalem | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 15 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Kiryat Gat | 21 | 53 | 18 | +35 | 55 |
| 2 | FC Jerusalem | 22 | 45 | 29 | +16 | 37 |
| 3 | Maccabi Yavne | 22 | 42 | 28 | +14 | 36 |
| 4 | Maccabi Ashdod | 21 | 37 | 35 | +2 | 28 |
| 5 | Tzeirey Tira | 21 | 33 | 24 | +9 | 33 |
| 6 | Holon Yermiyahu | 22 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 24 |
| 7 | Dimona | 22 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 37 |
| 8 | Shimshon Tel Aviv | 22 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 30 |
| 9 | Kfar Saba 1928 | 22 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 29 |
| 10 | Nordia Jerusalem | 22 | 28 | 40 | -12 | 15 |
| 11 | Maccabi Kiryat Malachi | 22 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 35 |
| 12 | Beitar Yavne | 22 | 27 | 34 | -7 | 30 |
| 13 | Hapoel Ramat HaSharon | 22 | 24 | 43 | -19 | 19 |
| 14 | Hapoel Herzliya | 22 | 22 | 36 | -14 | 22 |
| 15 | Hapoel Marmorek | 22 | 20 | 34 | -14 | 24 |
| 16 | Hapoel Azor | 21 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 23 |
