The model missed the final outcome (Maccabi Ahi Nazareth win 3–2).
The model had projected Draw at 42.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Draw Maccabi Ahi Nazareth ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 3-2 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Maccabi Ahi Nazareth win 3–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 0.74 — Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 0.61
-
Jan 17, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Maccabi Ahi Nazareth win · 3–2
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FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
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Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth win · Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 3–2 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga Alef — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Kiryat Gat | 21 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 55 |
| 2 | FC Jerusalem | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 37 |
| 3 | Dimona | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 37 |
| 4 | Maccabi Yavne | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 36 |
| 5 | Maccabi Kiryat Malachi | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 35 |
| 6 | Tzeirey Tira | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 33 |
| 7 | Shimshon Tel Aviv | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 30 |
| 8 | Beitar Yavne | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 30 |
| 9 | Kfar Saba 1928 | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 29 |
| 10 | Maccabi Ashdod | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
| 11 | Holon Yermiyahu | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 24 |
| 12 | Hapoel Marmorek | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 24 |
| 13 | Hapoel Azor | 21 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 23 |
| 14 | Hapoel Herzliya | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 22 |
| 15 | Hapoel Ramat HaSharon | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 19 |
| 16 | Nordia Jerusalem | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 15 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Kiryat Gat | 21 | 53 | 18 | +35 | 55 |
| 2 | FC Jerusalem | 22 | 45 | 29 | +16 | 37 |
| 3 | Maccabi Yavne | 22 | 42 | 28 | +14 | 36 |
| 4 | Maccabi Ashdod | 21 | 37 | 35 | +2 | 28 |
| 5 | Tzeirey Tira | 21 | 33 | 24 | +9 | 33 |
| 6 | Holon Yermiyahu | 22 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 24 |
| 7 | Dimona | 22 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 37 |
| 8 | Shimshon Tel Aviv | 22 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 30 |
| 9 | Kfar Saba 1928 | 22 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 29 |
| 10 | Nordia Jerusalem | 22 | 28 | 40 | -12 | 15 |
| 11 | Maccabi Kiryat Malachi | 22 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 35 |
| 12 | Beitar Yavne | 22 | 27 | 34 | -7 | 30 |
| 13 | Hapoel Ramat HaSharon | 22 | 24 | 43 | -19 | 19 |
| 14 | Hapoel Herzliya | 22 | 22 | 36 | -14 | 22 |
| 15 | Hapoel Marmorek | 22 | 20 | 34 | -14 | 24 |
| 16 | Hapoel Azor | 21 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 23 |
