Predictions / Football / Italy. Serie D - Girone H / Virtus Francavilla vs Sarnese

Prediction Audit: Virtus Francavilla vs Sarnese Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Virtus Francavilla Virtus Francavilla
May 03, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 70%
Sarnese Sarnese

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Virtus Francavilla at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Virtus Francavilla Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw -3.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Virtus Francavilla 41.8% 41.4% +0.3 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 28.8% -3.1 pp Aligned
Sarnese 32.6% 29.8% +2.8 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Virtus Francavilla; match finished Draw
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Virtus Francavilla 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Sarnese 32.6%
    • xG · Virtus Francavilla 1.45 — Sarnese 1.25
  2. May 03, 2026 · 12:51 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Virtus Francavilla 2.17 · Draw 3.12 · Sarnese 3.02
    • Implied 1X2 · Virtus Francavilla 41.4% · Draw 28.8% · Sarnese 29.8%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. May 03, 2026 · 13:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Virtus Francavilla 2.17 · Draw 3.12 · Sarnese 3.02
    • Implied 1X2 · Virtus Francavilla 41.4% · Draw 28.8% · Sarnese 29.8%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. May 03, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 84/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 13:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1708808

Closing Odds 3.12
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Virtus Francavilla 2–2 Sarnese
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Serie D - Girone H Serie D - Girone H — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Barletta 34 20 10 4 70
2 Martina Franca 34 18 8 8 62
3 Città di Fasano 34 18 8 8 62
4 Paganese 34 17 7 10 58
5 Nardò 34 14 13 7 55
6 Gravina 34 16 7 11 55
7 Real Casalnuovo 34 13 10 11 49
8 Fidelis Andria 34 13 9 12 48
9 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 12 10 48
10 Real Agro Aversa 34 10 13 11 43
11 Francavilla 34 11 10 13 43
12 Manfredonia 34 11 10 13 43
13 Sarnese 34 9 14 11 41
14 Nola 1925 34 11 8 15 41
15 Heraclea 34 10 8 16 38
16 Pompei 34 9 7 18 34
17 Ferrandina 34 7 9 18 30
18 Real Acerrana 34 3 5 26 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Barletta 34 54 20 +34 70
2 Città di Fasano 34 51 35 +16 62
3 Sarnese 34 51 49 +2 41
4 Gravina 34 50 40 +10 55
5 Martina Franca 34 47 30 +17 62
6 Virtus Francavilla 34 45 40 +5 48
7 Real Casalnuovo 34 45 46 -1 49
8 Nola 1925 34 42 50 -8 41
9 Nardò 34 40 27 +13 55
10 Francavilla 34 39 38 +1 43
11 Paganese 34 36 32 +4 58
12 Fidelis Andria 34 35 28 +7 48
13 Manfredonia 34 34 39 -5 43
14 Heraclea 34 31 39 -8 38
15 Real Agro Aversa 34 27 26 +1 43
16 Pompei 34 26 38 -12 34
17 Ferrandina 34 21 43 -22 30
18 Real Acerrana 34 20 74 -54 14
Serie D - Girone H Italy. Serie D - Girone H Predictions