Predictions / Football / Italy. Serie D - Girone G / Valmontone vs Latte Dolce

Prediction Audit: Valmontone vs Latte Dolce Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Valmontone Valmontone
Jan 25, 2026 - 13:30
1 1.49
2 1.23
xG Accuracy: 71%
Latte Dolce Latte Dolce

The model missed the final outcome (Latte Dolce win 1–2).

The model had projected Valmontone at 43.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Valmontone Latte Dolce ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.72) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Valmontone; match finished Latte Dolce

Market lesson

The full-time result was Latte Dolce win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • xG · Valmontone 1.49 — Latte Dolce 1.23
  2. Jan 25, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Latte Dolce win · 1–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1462521

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Latte Dolce win · Valmontone 1–2 Latte Dolce
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Serie D - Girone G Serie D - Girone G — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Scafatese 34 27 6 1 87
2 Trastevere 34 17 9 8 60
3 Monastir 34 15 8 11 53
4 Flaminia 34 13 12 9 51
5 Albalonga 34 14 8 12 50
6 Latte Dolce 34 14 6 14 48
7 Valmontone 34 14 6 14 48
8 Nocerina 34 11 14 9 47
9 Sarrabus Ogliastra 34 12 10 12 46
10 Budoni 34 12 9 13 45
11 USD Palmese 34 11 12 11 45
12 Atletico Lodigiani 34 11 11 12 44
13 Ischia 34 12 7 15 43
14 Anzio 34 10 11 13 41
15 Olbia 34 8 14 12 38
16 Real Monterotondo Scalo 34 10 6 18 36
17 Montespaccato 34 6 12 16 30
18 Cassino 34 4 9 21 21
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Scafatese 34 75 23 +52 87
2 Trastevere 34 64 46 +18 60
3 Albalonga 34 56 55 +1 50
4 Flaminia 34 53 37 +16 51
5 Monastir 34 51 44 +7 53
6 Latte Dolce 34 49 49 0 48
7 Valmontone 34 49 50 -1 48
8 Sarrabus Ogliastra 34 47 51 -4 46
9 Montespaccato 34 47 58 -11 30
10 Atletico Lodigiani 34 43 40 +3 44
11 USD Palmese 34 41 43 -2 45
12 Olbia 34 39 51 -12 38
13 Real Monterotondo Scalo 34 39 58 -19 36
14 Anzio 34 38 43 -5 41
15 Nocerina 34 36 33 +3 47
16 Ischia 34 36 52 -16 43
17 Budoni 34 34 32 +2 45
18 Cassino 34 24 56 -32 21
Serie D - Girone G Italy. Serie D - Girone G Predictions