Predictions / Football / Italy. Serie D - Girone E / Prato vs Tau Altopascio

Prediction Audit: Prato vs Tau Altopascio Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Prato Prato
Jan 25, 2026 - 13:30
2 1.49
2 1.23
xG Accuracy: 70%
Tau Altopascio Tau Altopascio

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Prato at 43.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Prato Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.72) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Prato; match finished Draw
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • xG · Prato 1.49 — Tau Altopascio 1.23
  2. Jan 25, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 28, 2026 · 15:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5824036

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Prato 2–2 Tau Altopascio
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Serie D - Girone E Serie D - Girone E — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Grosseto 34 22 6 6 72
2 Prato 34 20 5 9 63
3 Tau Altopascio 34 18 9 7 63
4 Robur Siena 34 17 9 8 60
5 Seravezza 34 15 12 7 57
6 Città di Foligno 34 14 9 11 51
7 FC Siena 22 9 5 8 32
7 Terranuova Traiana 34 14 9 11 51
8 Scandicci 34 11 15 8 48
9 Montevarchi Calcio 34 10 16 8 46
10 Sporting Trestina 34 10 12 12 42
11 Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 34 10 10 14 40
12 San Donato Tavarnelle 34 9 13 12 40
13 Orvietana Calcio 34 9 11 14 38
14 Gavorrano 34 9 10 15 37
15 Camaiore 34 9 8 17 35
16 Poggibonsi 34 7 10 17 31
17 Cannara 34 6 8 20 26
18 Sansepolcro 34 2 16 16 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Grosseto 34 58 25 +33 72
2 Robur Siena 34 57 35 +22 60
3 Tau Altopascio 34 53 33 +20 63
4 Prato 34 49 29 +20 63
5 Città di Foligno 34 45 37 +8 51
6 Seravezza 34 42 29 +13 57
7 Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 34 42 44 -2 40
8 Camaiore 34 41 54 -13 35
9 Sporting Trestina 34 40 42 -2 42
10 Scandicci 34 39 32 +7 48
11 Gavorrano 34 36 49 -13 37
12 Orvietana Calcio 34 33 37 -4 38
13 San Donato Tavarnelle 34 30 35 -5 40
14 Poggibonsi 34 29 46 -17 31
15 Terranuova Traiana 34 28 30 -2 51
16 Montevarchi Calcio 34 28 32 -4 46
17 Cannara 34 24 59 -35 26
18 FC Siena 22 22 18 +4 32
19 Sansepolcro 34 20 46 -26 22
Serie D - Girone E Italy. Serie D - Girone E Predictions