Predictions / Football / Italy. Serie D - Girone D / Lentigione vs Sant'Angelo

Prediction Audit: Lentigione vs Sant'Angelo Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Lentigione Lentigione
May 03, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 70%
Sant'Angelo Sant'Angelo

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Lentigione at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Lentigione Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Lentigione; match finished Draw
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • xG · Lentigione 1.45 — Sant'Angelo 1.25
  2. May 03, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 09:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1578156

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Lentigione 2–2 Sant'Angelo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Serie D - Girone D Serie D - Girone D — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Desenzano Calvina 34 23 8 3 77
2 Lentigione 34 22 7 5 73
3 Pistoiese 33 19 11 3 68
4 Piacenza 34 19 7 8 64
5 Pro Palazzolo 33 16 8 9 56
6 Pro Sesto 33 15 10 8 55
7 Cittadella Vis Modena 33 15 10 8 55
8 Rovato Vertovese 33 14 10 9 52
9 Sangiuliano City 34 14 8 12 47
10 Sant'Angelo 34 10 9 15 39
11 Crema 34 9 11 14 38
12 Progresso 33 9 9 15 36
13 Correggese 33 8 12 13 36
14 Sasso Marconi Zola 33 8 7 18 31
14 ASD Sasso Marconi 21 6 3 12 21
15 Imolese 33 7 10 16 31
16 Coriano 33 7 9 17 30
17 Trevigliese 33 5 7 21 22
18 Tuttocuoio 33 0 7 26 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Desenzano Calvina 34 60 21 +39 77
2 Piacenza 34 60 35 +25 64
3 Pistoiese 33 56 22 +34 68
4 Lentigione 34 51 23 +28 73
5 Pro Sesto 33 45 29 +16 55
6 Pro Palazzolo 33 43 30 +13 56
7 Sangiuliano City 34 41 45 -4 47
8 Sant'Angelo 34 38 51 -13 39
9 Cittadella Vis Modena 33 35 24 +11 55
10 Rovato Vertovese 33 35 28 +7 52
11 Crema 34 35 47 -12 38
12 Correggese 33 34 36 -2 36
13 Progresso 33 34 41 -7 36
14 Sasso Marconi Zola 33 32 45 -13 31
15 Coriano 33 28 44 -16 30
16 Trevigliese 33 28 59 -31 22
17 Imolese 33 27 47 -20 31
18 ASD Sasso Marconi 21 23 30 -7 21
19 Tuttocuoio 33 15 70 -55 7
Serie D - Girone D Italy. Serie D - Girone D Predictions