The model missed the final outcome (PSV/Eindhoven W win 0–2).
The model had projected Draw at 42.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
C
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Draw PSV/Eindhoven W ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.35, 2 goals)
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Draw; match finished PSV/Eindhoven W
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was PSV/Eindhoven W win 0–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · PEC Zwolle W 0.74 — PSV/Eindhoven W 0.61
-
Jan 18, 2026 · 15:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result PSV/Eindhoven W win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
PSV/Eindhoven W win · PEC Zwolle W 0–2 PSV/Eindhoven W
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Eredivisie Women — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV/Eindhoven W | 21 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 51 |
| 2 | Ajax W | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 47 |
| 3 | Twente W | 21 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 46 |
| 4 | Feyenoord W | 21 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 44 |
| 5 | PEC Zwolle W | 21 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 34 |
| 6 | Utrecht W | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 34 |
| 7 | Heerenveen W | 21 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 26 |
| 8 | AZ | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 21 |
| 9 | Hera United W | 21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 20 |
| 10 | ADO Den Haag W | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 19 |
| 11 | Excelsior W | 21 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 8 |
| 12 | NAC Breda W | 21 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 7 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV/Eindhoven W | 21 | 54 | 14 | +40 | 51 |
| 2 | Twente W | 21 | 54 | 17 | +37 | 46 |
| 3 | Ajax W | 21 | 52 | 17 | +35 | 47 |
| 4 | Feyenoord W | 21 | 42 | 17 | +25 | 44 |
| 5 | Utrecht W | 21 | 39 | 36 | +3 | 34 |
| 6 | Heerenveen W | 21 | 37 | 48 | -11 | 26 |
| 7 | PEC Zwolle W | 21 | 35 | 29 | +6 | 34 |
| 8 | AZ | 21 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 21 |
| 9 | Hera United W | 21 | 23 | 40 | -17 | 20 |
| 10 | ADO Den Haag W | 21 | 21 | 45 | -24 | 19 |
| 11 | Excelsior W | 21 | 18 | 50 | -32 | 8 |
| 12 | NAC Breda W | 21 | 17 | 68 | -51 | 7 |
