The model missed the final outcome (Orlando Pirates U23 win 2–0).
The model had projected Draw at 42.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
C
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Draw Orlando Pirates U23 ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 2-0 ✔ Correct
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.35, 2 goals)
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Draw; match finished Orlando Pirates U23
Market lesson
The full-time result was Orlando Pirates U23 win 2–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Orlando Pirates U23 0.74 — Marumo Gallants U23 0.61
-
Jan 17, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Orlando Pirates U23 win · 2–0
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FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Orlando Pirates U23 win · Orlando Pirates U23 2–0 Marumo Gallants U23
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Diski Challenge — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orlando Pirates U23 | 30 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 75 |
| 2 | Mamelodi Sundowns U23 | 30 | 22 | 4 | 5 | 70 |
| 3 | Royal AM U23 | 30 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 52 |
| 4 | Kaizer Chiefs U23 | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 49 |
| 5 | Stellenbosch U23 | 30 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 49 |
| 6 | Orbit College U23 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 13 | 43 |
| 7 | Richards Bay U23 | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 40 |
| 8 | Sekhukhune United U23 | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 9 | Golden Arrows U23 | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | 38 |
| 10 | Marumo Gallants U23 | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | 38 |
| 11 | TS Galaxy U23 | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | 38 |
| 12 | AmaZulu U23 | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | 38 |
| 13 | Maritzburg United U23 | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 32 |
| 14 | Magesi U23 | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 31 |
| 15 | Polokwane City U23 | 30 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 20 |
| 16 | Chippa United U23 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 17 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mamelodi Sundowns U23 | 30 | 71 | 32 | +39 | 70 |
| 2 | Orlando Pirates U23 | 30 | 64 | 20 | +44 | 75 |
| 3 | Kaizer Chiefs U23 | 30 | 58 | 33 | +25 | 49 |
| 4 | Royal AM U23 | 30 | 55 | 36 | +19 | 52 |
| 5 | Stellenbosch U23 | 30 | 54 | 44 | +10 | 49 |
| 6 | Maritzburg United U23 | 30 | 49 | 46 | +3 | 32 |
| 7 | Golden Arrows U23 | 30 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 38 |
| 8 | Sekhukhune United U23 | 30 | 46 | 39 | +7 | 39 |
| 9 | Marumo Gallants U23 | 30 | 44 | 52 | -8 | 38 |
| 10 | Richards Bay U23 | 30 | 41 | 43 | -2 | 40 |
| 11 | TS Galaxy U23 | 30 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
| 12 | Orbit College U23 | 30 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 43 |
| 13 | AmaZulu U23 | 30 | 36 | 51 | -15 | 38 |
| 14 | Chippa United U23 | 30 | 35 | 82 | -47 | 17 |
| 15 | Magesi U23 | 30 | 31 | 46 | -15 | 31 |
| 16 | Polokwane City U23 | 30 | 18 | 54 | -36 | 20 |
