Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
—
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 — Under 2.5 (1 goals) — N/A
- Both Teams To Score — No — N/A
- 1X2 — Lyon — N/A
- Correct Score Insights — 0-1 — N/A
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 2.14, 1 goals)
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
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Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Utrecht 1.14 — Lyon 1.00
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Sep 25, 2025 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Lyon win · 0–1
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Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
—
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Lyon win · Utrecht 0–1 Lyon
Prediction
—
Decision Grade
—
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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UEFA Europa League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 3 | FC Midtjylland | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 5 | FC Porto | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 6 | SC Braga | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 7 | SC Freiburg | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 8 | AS Roma | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 9 | Genk | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 10 | Bologna | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 12 | Ferencvarosi TC | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 13 | Nottingham Forest | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 14 | Plzen | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 15 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 16 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 17 | PAOK | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 18 | Lille | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 19 | Fenerbahce | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 20 | Panathinaikos | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 21 | Celtic | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 22 | Ludogorets | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 23 | Dinamo Zagreb | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 24 | Brann | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 25 | BSC Young Boys | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 26 | Sturm Graz | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 27 | FCSB | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 28 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 29 | Feyenoord | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 30 | FC Basel 1893 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 31 | Red Bull Salzburg | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 32 | Rangers | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 33 | Nice | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
| 34 | Utrecht | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| 35 | Malmo FF | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| 36 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon | 8 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 21 |
| 2 | FC Midtjylland | 8 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 | PAOK | 8 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 12 |
| 4 | Nottingham Forest | 8 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 14 |
| 5 | VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 15 |
| 6 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 13 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 8 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 21 |
| 8 | Bologna | 8 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 15 |
| 9 | AS Roma | 8 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 16 |
| 10 | Real Betis | 8 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 17 |
| 11 | FC Porto | 8 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 17 |
| 12 | Celtic | 8 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Lille | 8 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 12 |
| 14 | Ferencvarosi TC | 8 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 15 | Ludogorets | 8 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 10 |
| 16 | Dinamo Zagreb | 8 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 10 |
| 17 | SC Braga | 8 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 17 |
| 18 | Genk | 8 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 16 |
| 19 | Panathinaikos | 8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 12 |
| 20 | Feyenoord | 8 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 6 |
| 21 | SC Freiburg | 8 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 17 |
| 22 | Fenerbahce | 8 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 12 |
| 23 | Red Bull Salzburg | 8 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 6 |
| 24 | BSC Young Boys | 8 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 9 |
| 25 | Brann | 8 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 9 |
| 26 | FC Basel 1893 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 6 |
| 27 | FCSB | 8 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 7 |
| 28 | Plzen | 8 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 14 |
| 29 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 8 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 14 |
| 30 | Nice | 8 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 3 |
| 31 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 7 |
| 32 | Sturm Graz | 8 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 7 |
| 33 | Rangers | 8 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 4 |
| 34 | Utrecht | 8 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 1 |
| 35 | Malmo FF | 8 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 1 |
| 36 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 8 | 2 | 22 | -20 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon | 8 | 17.6 | 6.1 | +11.5 | 21 |
| 2 | Nottingham Forest | 8 | 15.5 | 4.7 | +10.8 | 14 |
| 3 | FC Porto | 8 | 12.0 | 4.3 | +7.7 | 17 |
| 4 | VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 10.6 | 3.7 | +6.9 | 15 |
| 5 | Bologna | 8 | 14.7 | 8.9 | +5.8 | 15 |
| 6 | SC Freiburg | 8 | 9.4 | 3.8 | +5.6 | 17 |
| 7 | AS Roma | 8 | 10.6 | 7.2 | +3.4 | 16 |
| 8 | PAOK | 8 | 16.5 | 13.2 | +3.3 | 12 |
| 9 | Celtic | 8 | 14.6 | 12.0 | +2.6 | 11 |
| 10 | Fenerbahce | 8 | 8.7 | 6.3 | +2.4 | 12 |
| 11 | Aston Villa | 8 | 9.0 | 6.7 | +2.3 | 21 |
| 12 | Feyenoord | 8 | 5.5 | 3.4 | +2.1 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Midtjylland | 8 | 12.8 | 10.8 | +2.0 | 19 |
| 14 | Panathinaikos | 8 | 7.5 | 5.7 | +1.8 | 12 |
| 15 | Lille | 8 | 11.6 | 10.0 | +1.6 | 12 |
| 16 | Ferencvarosi TC | 8 | 11.4 | 9.9 | +1.5 | 15 |
| 17 | Dinamo Zagreb | 8 | 9.9 | 9.1 | +0.8 | 10 |
| 18 | Nice | 8 | 8.1 | 7.6 | +0.5 | 3 |
| 19 | Genk | 8 | 7.5 | 7.1 | +0.4 | 16 |
| 20 | SC Braga | 8 | 6.4 | 6.1 | +0.3 | 17 |
| 21 | Brann | 8 | 11.8 | 12.0 | -0.2 | 9 |
| 22 | Ludogorets | 8 | 9.8 | 10.2 | -0.4 | 10 |
| 23 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 10.8 | 11.6 | -0.8 | 13 |
| 24 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 8 | 9.8 | 11.6 | -1.8 | 14 |
| 25 | Real Betis | 8 | 6.5 | 8.6 | -2.1 | 17 |
| 26 | Plzen | 8 | 7.1 | 9.7 | -2.6 | 14 |
| 27 | FC Basel 1893 | 8 | 6.5 | 9.6 | -3.1 | 6 |
| 28 | BSC Young Boys | 8 | 5.6 | 9.4 | -3.8 | 9 |
| 29 | Utrecht | 8 | 5.6 | 9.5 | -3.9 | 1 |
| 30 | Rangers | 8 | 9.8 | 14.9 | -5.1 | 4 |
| 31 | Red Bull Salzburg | 8 | 11.5 | 17.2 | -5.7 | 6 |
| 32 | FCSB | 8 | 3.5 | 9.5 | -6.0 | 7 |
| 33 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 6.1 | 12.9 | -6.8 | 7 |
| 34 | Sturm Graz | 8 | 5.8 | 14.0 | -8.2 | 7 |
| 35 | Malmo FF | 8 | 4.3 | 15.1 | -10.8 | 1 |
| 36 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 8 | 6.2 | 18.6 | -12.4 | 1 |
