Predictions / Football / Bulgaria. Second League / Ludogorets II vs Spartak Pleven

Prediction Audit: Ludogorets II vs Spartak Pleven Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ludogorets II Ludogorets II
May 23, 2026 - 15:00
3 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
Spartak Pleven Spartak Pleven

AI correctly predicted the Ludogorets II win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Ludogorets II Ludogorets II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Spartak Pleven considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Spartak Pleven +11.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ludogorets II 41.8% 52.3% -10.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 26.3% -0.6 pp Aligned
Spartak Pleven 32.6% 21.4% +11.2 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Spartak Pleven's win probability at 32.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 21.4%, a difference of 11.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Ludogorets II win 3–1).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Spartak Pleven.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Ludogorets II more conservatively (30.6% vs model 41.8%, 11.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Ludogorets II win 3–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 23, 2026 · 19:08 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ludogorets II 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Spartak Pleven 32.6%
    • xG · Ludogorets II 1.45 — Spartak Pleven 1.25
  2. May 23, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ludogorets II 1.72 · Draw 3.42 · Spartak Pleven 4.20
    • Implied 1X2 · Ludogorets II 52.3% · Draw 26.3% · Spartak Pleven 21.4%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. May 23, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Ludogorets II 1.72 · Draw 3.42 · Spartak Pleven 4.20
    • Implied 1X2 · Ludogorets II 52.3% · Draw 26.3% · Spartak Pleven 21.4%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. May 23, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Ludogorets II win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 44/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 22:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1934647

Closing Odds 4.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ludogorets II win · Ludogorets II 3–1 Spartak Pleven
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Second League
  • Fixture: Ludogorets II vs Spartak Pleven
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Ludogorets II 1.45 — Spartak Pleven 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 60.5% · Implied: 51.1% · Probability edge: +9.4 pts · Est. EV: +8.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 39.5% · No 60.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League Second League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dunav Ruse 31 19 9 3 66
2 Yantra 2019 31 17 10 4 61
3 Fratria 31 17 9 5 60
4 Vihren 32 17 7 8 58
5 CSKA Sofia II 31 15 7 9 52
6 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 31 11 13 7 46
7 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 31 11 11 9 44
8 Hebar 1918 31 11 7 13 40
9 Pirin Blagoevgrad 31 9 11 11 38
10 Ludogorets II 31 10 8 13 38
11 Marek 31 9 11 11 38
12 Spartak Pleven 31 9 8 14 35
13 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 31 8 9 14 33
14 Sportist Svoge 31 8 7 16 31
15 FK Minyor Pernik 31 7 9 15 30
16 Sevlievo 31 8 5 18 29
17 Belasitsa 31 4 7 20 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vihren 32 59 34 +25 58
2 Fratria 31 58 29 +29 60
3 CSKA Sofia II 31 54 32 +22 52
4 Dunav Ruse 31 51 15 +36 66
5 Yantra 2019 31 42 23 +19 61
6 Hebar 1918 31 41 50 -9 40
7 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 31 39 42 -3 44
8 Pirin Blagoevgrad 31 38 38 0 38
9 Ludogorets II 31 38 42 -4 38
10 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 31 36 29 +7 46
11 Spartak Pleven 31 36 42 -6 35
12 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 31 33 49 -16 33
13 FK Minyor Pernik 31 31 43 -12 30
14 Sportist Svoge 31 27 48 -21 31
15 Marek 31 26 35 -9 38
16 Sevlievo 31 26 50 -24 29
17 Belasitsa 31 25 59 -34 19