Predictions / Football / Bulgaria. Second League / Spartak Pleven vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

Prediction Audit: Spartak Pleven vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Spartak Pleven Spartak Pleven
May 15, 2026 - 15:00
5 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 31%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

AI correctly predicted the Spartak Pleven win.

The match finished 5–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Spartak Pleven Spartak Pleven ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 5-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa +4.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Spartak Pleven 41.8% 42.8% -1.0 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 29.1% -3.5 pp Aligned
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 32.6% 28.1% +4.5 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Spartak Pleven win 5–2).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 7 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Spartak Pleven win 5–2).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 16, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Spartak Pleven 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 32.6%
    • xG · Spartak Pleven 1.45 — Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Spartak Pleven 1.98 · Draw 2.91 · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 3.02
    • Implied 1X2 · Spartak Pleven 42.8% · Draw 29.1% · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 28.1%
    • Bookmaker · SBO
  3. May 16, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Spartak Pleven 1.98 · Draw 2.91 · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 3.02
    • Implied 1X2 · Spartak Pleven 42.8% · Draw 29.1% · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 28.1%
    • Bookmaker · SBO
  4. May 15, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Spartak Pleven win · 5–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 77/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 23:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1773841

Closing Odds 3.02
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Spartak Pleven win · Spartak Pleven 5–2 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Second League
  • Fixture: Spartak Pleven vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Spartak Pleven 1.45 — Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.9%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 57.0% · Over 2.5 43.0%); BTTS No (Yes 44.3% · No 55.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 44.3% · No 55.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.0%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Second League Matches Track Spartak Pleven Next Match Prediction Track Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Spartak Pleven & Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Second League Second League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dunav Ruse 31 19 9 3 66
2 Yantra 2019 31 17 10 4 61
3 Fratria 31 17 9 5 60
4 Vihren 32 17 7 8 58
5 CSKA Sofia II 31 15 7 9 52
6 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 31 11 13 7 46
7 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 31 11 11 9 44
8 Hebar 1918 31 11 7 13 40
9 Pirin Blagoevgrad 31 9 11 11 38
10 Ludogorets II 31 10 8 13 38
11 Marek 31 9 11 11 38
12 Spartak Pleven 31 9 8 14 35
13 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 31 8 9 14 33
14 Sportist Svoge 31 8 7 16 31
15 FK Minyor Pernik 31 7 9 15 30
16 Sevlievo 31 8 5 18 29
17 Belasitsa 31 4 7 20 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vihren 32 59 34 +25 58
2 Fratria 31 58 29 +29 60
3 CSKA Sofia II 31 54 32 +22 52
4 Dunav Ruse 31 51 15 +36 66
5 Yantra 2019 31 42 23 +19 61
6 Hebar 1918 31 41 50 -9 40
7 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 31 39 42 -3 44
8 Pirin Blagoevgrad 31 38 38 0 38
9 Ludogorets II 31 38 42 -4 38
10 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 31 36 29 +7 46
11 Spartak Pleven 31 36 42 -6 35
12 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 31 33 49 -16 33
13 FK Minyor Pernik 31 31 43 -12 30
14 Sportist Svoge 31 27 48 -21 31
15 Marek 31 26 35 -9 38
16 Sevlievo 31 26 50 -24 29
17 Belasitsa 31 25 59 -34 19