Predictions / Football / Bulgaria. Second League / Sportist Svoge vs Pirin Blagoevgrad

Prediction Audit: Sportist Svoge vs Pirin Blagoevgrad Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sportist Svoge Sportist Svoge
May 11, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
Pirin Blagoevgrad Pirin Blagoevgrad

AI correctly predicted the Sportist Svoge win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sportist Svoge Sportist Svoge ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Pirin Blagoevgrad considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Pirin Blagoevgrad +6.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sportist Svoge 41.8% 46.9% -5.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 26.9% -1.2 pp Aligned
Pirin Blagoevgrad 32.6% 26.2% +6.4 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Pirin Blagoevgrad's win probability at 32.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 26.2%, a difference of 6.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Sportist Svoge win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Pirin Blagoevgrad.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Sportist Svoge more conservatively (35.4% vs model 41.8%, 6.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Sportist Svoge win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 11, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sportist Svoge 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Pirin Blagoevgrad 32.6%
    • xG · Sportist Svoge 1.45 — Pirin Blagoevgrad 1.25
  2. May 11, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sportist Svoge 1.89 · Draw 3.30 · Pirin Blagoevgrad 3.39
    • Implied 1X2 · Sportist Svoge 46.9% · Draw 26.9% · Pirin Blagoevgrad 26.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 11, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sportist Svoge 1.89 · Draw 3.30 · Pirin Blagoevgrad 3.39
    • Implied 1X2 · Sportist Svoge 46.9% · Draw 26.9% · Pirin Blagoevgrad 26.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 11, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Sportist Svoge win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 68/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 15:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1613341

Closing Odds 3.39
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sportist Svoge win · Sportist Svoge 2–0 Pirin Blagoevgrad
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Second League
  • Fixture: Sportist Svoge vs Pirin Blagoevgrad
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-11 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Sportist Svoge 1.45 — Pirin Blagoevgrad 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 55.7% · Over 2.5 44.3%); BTTS No (Yes 33.3% · No 66.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 33.3% · No 66.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.7%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League Second League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dunav Ruse 31 19 9 3 66
2 Yantra 2019 31 17 10 4 61
3 Fratria 31 17 9 5 60
4 Vihren 32 17 7 8 58
5 CSKA Sofia II 31 15 7 9 52
6 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 31 11 13 7 46
7 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 31 11 11 9 44
8 Hebar 1918 31 11 7 13 40
9 Pirin Blagoevgrad 31 9 11 11 38
10 Ludogorets II 31 10 8 13 38
11 Marek 31 9 11 11 38
12 Spartak Pleven 31 9 8 14 35
13 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 31 8 9 14 33
14 Sportist Svoge 31 8 7 16 31
15 FK Minyor Pernik 31 7 9 15 30
16 Sevlievo 31 8 5 18 29
17 Belasitsa 31 4 7 20 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vihren 32 59 34 +25 58
2 Fratria 31 58 29 +29 60
3 CSKA Sofia II 31 54 32 +22 52
4 Dunav Ruse 31 51 15 +36 66
5 Yantra 2019 31 42 23 +19 61
6 Hebar 1918 31 41 50 -9 40
7 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 31 39 42 -3 44
8 Pirin Blagoevgrad 31 38 38 0 38
9 Ludogorets II 31 38 42 -4 38
10 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 31 36 29 +7 46
11 Spartak Pleven 31 36 42 -6 35
12 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 31 33 49 -16 33
13 FK Minyor Pernik 31 31 43 -12 30
14 Sportist Svoge 31 27 48 -21 31
15 Marek 31 26 35 -9 38
16 Sevlievo 31 26 50 -24 29
17 Belasitsa 31 25 59 -34 19