Predictions / Football / Bulgaria. Second League / FK Minyor Pernik vs CSKA Sofia II

Prediction Audit: FK Minyor Pernik vs CSKA Sofia II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FK Minyor Pernik FK Minyor Pernik
May 11, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 72%
CSKA Sofia II CSKA Sofia II

The model missed the final outcome (CSKA Sofia II win 1–2).

The model had projected FK Minyor Pernik at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 FK Minyor Pernik CSKA Sofia II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices FK Minyor Pernik higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: FK Minyor Pernik -7.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FK Minyor Pernik 41.8% 49.6% -7.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 23.9% +1.7 pp Aligned
CSKA Sofia II 32.6% 26.4% +6.1 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates FK Minyor Pernik's win probability at 49.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 7.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was CSKA Sofia II win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on FK Minyor Pernik. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on FK Minyor Pernik by 7.8 percentage points (49.6% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 11, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FK Minyor Pernik 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · CSKA Sofia II 32.6%
    • xG · FK Minyor Pernik 1.45 — CSKA Sofia II 1.25
  2. May 11, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FK Minyor Pernik 1.79 · Draw 3.71 · CSKA Sofia II 3.36
    • Implied 1X2 · FK Minyor Pernik 49.6% · Draw 23.9% · CSKA Sofia II 26.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 11, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · FK Minyor Pernik 1.79 · Draw 3.71 · CSKA Sofia II 3.36
    • Implied 1X2 · FK Minyor Pernik 49.6% · Draw 23.9% · CSKA Sofia II 26.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 11, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result CSKA Sofia II win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 60/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 01:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1952976

Closing Odds 1.79
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result CSKA Sofia II win · FK Minyor Pernik 1–2 CSKA Sofia II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Second League
  • Fixture: FK Minyor Pernik vs CSKA Sofia II
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-11 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): FK Minyor Pernik 1.45 — CSKA Sofia II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 54.4% · Over 2.5 45.6%); BTTS No (Yes 42.3% · No 57.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 42.3% · No 57.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (12.3%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League Second League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dunav Ruse 31 19 9 3 66
2 Yantra 2019 31 17 10 4 61
3 Fratria 31 17 9 5 60
4 Vihren 32 17 7 8 58
5 CSKA Sofia II 31 15 7 9 52
6 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 31 11 13 7 46
7 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 31 11 11 9 44
8 Hebar 1918 31 11 7 13 40
9 Pirin Blagoevgrad 31 9 11 11 38
10 Ludogorets II 31 10 8 13 38
11 Marek 31 9 11 11 38
12 Spartak Pleven 31 9 8 14 35
13 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 31 8 9 14 33
14 Sportist Svoge 31 8 7 16 31
15 FK Minyor Pernik 31 7 9 15 30
16 Sevlievo 31 8 5 18 29
17 Belasitsa 31 4 7 20 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vihren 32 59 34 +25 58
2 Fratria 31 58 29 +29 60
3 CSKA Sofia II 31 54 32 +22 52
4 Dunav Ruse 31 51 15 +36 66
5 Yantra 2019 31 42 23 +19 61
6 Hebar 1918 31 41 50 -9 40
7 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 31 39 42 -3 44
8 Pirin Blagoevgrad 31 38 38 0 38
9 Ludogorets II 31 38 42 -4 38
10 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 31 36 29 +7 46
11 Spartak Pleven 31 36 42 -6 35
12 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 31 33 49 -16 33
13 FK Minyor Pernik 31 31 43 -12 30
14 Sportist Svoge 31 27 48 -21 31
15 Marek 31 26 35 -9 38
16 Sevlievo 31 26 50 -24 29
17 Belasitsa 31 25 59 -34 19