Predictions / Football / Bulgaria. Second League / Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs Hebar 1918

Prediction Audit: Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs Hebar 1918 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Etar Veliko Tarnovo Etar Veliko Tarnovo
May 10, 2026 - 15:30
0 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Hebar 1918 Hebar 1918

The model missed the final outcome (Hebar 1918 win 0–1).

The model had projected Etar Veliko Tarnovo at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Etar Veliko Tarnovo Hebar 1918 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Hebar 1918 +2.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 41.8% 42.6% -0.8 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 27.4% -1.7 pp Aligned
Hebar 1918 32.6% 30.0% +2.6 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Hebar 1918 win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Etar Veliko Tarnovo; match finished Hebar 1918

Market lesson

The full-time result was Hebar 1918 win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Etar Veliko Tarnovo 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Hebar 1918 32.6%
    • xG · Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1.45 — Hebar 1918 1.25
  2. May 09, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2.11 · Draw 3.28 · Hebar 1918 3.00
    • Implied 1X2 · Etar Veliko Tarnovo 42.6% · Draw 27.4% · Hebar 1918 30.0%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. May 09, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2.11 · Draw 3.28 · Hebar 1918 3.00
    • Implied 1X2 · Etar Veliko Tarnovo 42.6% · Draw 27.4% · Hebar 1918 30.0%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. May 10, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Hebar 1918 win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 87/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 19:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1631995

Closing Odds 3.0
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Hebar 1918 win · Etar Veliko Tarnovo 0–1 Hebar 1918
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Second League
  • Fixture: Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs Hebar 1918
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1.45 — Hebar 1918 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 52.9% · Implied: 42.5% · Probability edge: +10.4 pts · Est. EV: +14.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 47.1% · No 52.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.7%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League Second League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dunav Ruse 31 19 9 3 66
2 Yantra 2019 31 17 10 4 61
3 Fratria 31 17 9 5 60
4 Vihren 32 17 7 8 58
5 CSKA Sofia II 31 15 7 9 52
6 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 31 11 13 7 46
7 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 31 11 11 9 44
8 Hebar 1918 31 11 7 13 40
9 Pirin Blagoevgrad 31 9 11 11 38
10 Ludogorets II 31 10 8 13 38
11 Marek 31 9 11 11 38
12 Spartak Pleven 31 9 8 14 35
13 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 31 8 9 14 33
14 Sportist Svoge 31 8 7 16 31
15 FK Minyor Pernik 31 7 9 15 30
16 Sevlievo 31 8 5 18 29
17 Belasitsa 31 4 7 20 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vihren 32 59 34 +25 58
2 Fratria 31 58 29 +29 60
3 CSKA Sofia II 31 54 32 +22 52
4 Dunav Ruse 31 51 15 +36 66
5 Yantra 2019 31 42 23 +19 61
6 Hebar 1918 31 41 50 -9 40
7 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 31 39 42 -3 44
8 Pirin Blagoevgrad 31 38 38 0 38
9 Ludogorets II 31 38 42 -4 38
10 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 31 36 29 +7 46
11 Spartak Pleven 31 36 42 -6 35
12 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 31 33 49 -16 33
13 FK Minyor Pernik 31 31 43 -12 30
14 Sportist Svoge 31 27 48 -21 31
15 Marek 31 26 35 -9 38
16 Sevlievo 31 26 50 -24 29
17 Belasitsa 31 25 59 -34 19