Predictions / Football / Bulgaria. Second League / Hebar 1918 vs Ludogorets II

Prediction Audit: Hebar 1918 vs Ludogorets II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hebar 1918 Hebar 1918
May 04, 2026 - 15:30
1 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 72%
Ludogorets II Ludogorets II

The model missed the final outcome (Ludogorets II win 1–2).

The model had projected Hebar 1918 at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 draw Ludogorets II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 1-0 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Hebar 1918 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Hebar 1918 -5.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Hebar 1918 41.8% 47.7% -5.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 23.7% +2.0 pp Aligned
Ludogorets II 32.6% 28.6% +4.0 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Hebar 1918's win probability at 47.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 5.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Ludogorets II win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Hebar 1918. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned draw; match finished Ludogorets II

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Hebar 1918 by 5.9 percentage points (47.7% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 04, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Hebar 1918 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Ludogorets II 32.6%
    • xG · Hebar 1918 1.45 — Ludogorets II 1.25
  2. May 04, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Hebar 1918 1.86 · Draw 3.74 · Ludogorets II 3.10
    • Implied 1X2 · Hebar 1918 47.7% · Draw 23.7% · Ludogorets II 28.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 04, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Hebar 1918 1.86 · Draw 3.74 · Ludogorets II 3.10
    • Implied 1X2 · Hebar 1918 47.7% · Draw 23.7% · Ludogorets II 28.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 04, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Ludogorets II win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 70/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 20:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1638354

Closing Odds 1.86
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ludogorets II win · Hebar 1918 1–2 Ludogorets II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Second League
  • Fixture: Hebar 1918 vs Ludogorets II
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-04 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Hebar 1918 1.45 — Ludogorets II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 46.1% · Probability edge: +8.4 pts · Est. EV: +9.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 45.5% · No 54.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.7%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League Second League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dunav Ruse 31 19 9 3 66
2 Yantra 2019 31 17 10 4 61
3 Fratria 31 17 9 5 60
4 Vihren 32 17 7 8 58
5 CSKA Sofia II 31 15 7 9 52
6 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 31 11 13 7 46
7 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 31 11 11 9 44
8 Hebar 1918 31 11 7 13 40
9 Pirin Blagoevgrad 31 9 11 11 38
10 Ludogorets II 31 10 8 13 38
11 Marek 31 9 11 11 38
12 Spartak Pleven 31 9 8 14 35
13 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 31 8 9 14 33
14 Sportist Svoge 31 8 7 16 31
15 FK Minyor Pernik 31 7 9 15 30
16 Sevlievo 31 8 5 18 29
17 Belasitsa 31 4 7 20 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vihren 32 59 34 +25 58
2 Fratria 31 58 29 +29 60
3 CSKA Sofia II 31 54 32 +22 52
4 Dunav Ruse 31 51 15 +36 66
5 Yantra 2019 31 42 23 +19 61
6 Hebar 1918 31 41 50 -9 40
7 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 31 39 42 -3 44
8 Pirin Blagoevgrad 31 38 38 0 38
9 Ludogorets II 31 38 42 -4 38
10 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 31 36 29 +7 46
11 Spartak Pleven 31 36 42 -6 35
12 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 31 33 49 -16 33
13 FK Minyor Pernik 31 31 43 -12 30
14 Sportist Svoge 31 27 48 -21 31
15 Marek 31 26 35 -9 38
16 Sevlievo 31 26 50 -24 29
17 Belasitsa 31 25 59 -34 19