Predictions / Football / Bulgaria. First League / CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia

Prediction Audit: CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia
Feb 21, 2026 - 15:30
1 2.34
0 0.98
xG Accuracy: 53%
Slavia Sofia Slavia Sofia

AI correctly predicted the CSKA Sofia win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-0, 2-1, 1-0, 1-1, 3-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • CSKA Sofia attacking xG significantly stronger (2.34 vs 0.98)
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (CSKA Sofia win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • xG · CSKA Sofia 2.34 — Slavia Sofia 0.98
  2. Feb 21, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result CSKA Sofia win · 1–0
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (73%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 53/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 10, 2026 · 22:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3584884

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result CSKA Sofia win · CSKA Sofia 1–0 Slavia Sofia
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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First League First League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Levski Sofia 30 22 4 4 70
2 Ludogorets 30 17 9 4 60
3 CSKA 1948 30 18 5 7 59
4 CSKA Sofia 30 16 8 6 56
5 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 30 11 13 6 46
6 Cherno More Varna 30 11 11 8 44
7 Arda Kardzhali 30 12 8 10 44
8 Botev Plovdiv 30 11 7 12 40
9 Slavia Sofia 30 10 9 11 39
10 Botev Vratsa 30 9 11 10 38
11 Lokomotiv Sofia 30 9 10 11 37
12 Spartak Varna 30 5 12 13 27
13 Dobrudzha 30 7 5 18 26
14 Septemvri Sofia 30 7 5 18 26
15 Beroe 30 4 11 15 23
16 Montana 30 3 8 19 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Levski Sofia 30 64 22 +42 70
2 Ludogorets 30 57 20 +37 60
3 CSKA 1948 30 50 31 +19 59
4 CSKA Sofia 30 43 23 +20 56
5 Botev Plovdiv 30 40 37 +3 40
6 Lokomotiv Sofia 30 40 39 +1 37
7 Slavia Sofia 30 36 33 +3 39
8 Cherno More Varna 30 33 26 +7 44
9 Arda Kardzhali 30 33 27 +6 44
10 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 30 30 33 -3 46
11 Spartak Varna 30 25 50 -25 27
12 Septemvri Sofia 30 25 58 -33 26
13 Botev Vratsa 30 24 26 -2 38
14 Dobrudzha 30 23 43 -20 26
15 Beroe 30 19 44 -25 23
16 Montana 30 15 45 -30 17
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Ludogorets 30 46.3 12.3 +34.0 60
2 Levski Sofia 30 44.8 15.1 +29.7 70
3 CSKA Sofia 30 33.5 20.0 +13.5 56
4 CSKA 1948 30 33.4 21.9 +11.5 59
5 Arda Kardzhali 30 27.1 19.2 +7.9 44
6 Lokomotiv Sofia 30 28.0 24.4 +3.6 37
7 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 30 26.0 22.4 +3.6 46
8 Botev Vratsa 30 20.7 22.2 -1.5 38
9 Botev Plovdiv 30 28.8 30.9 -2.1 40
10 Cherno More Varna 30 20.5 27.9 -7.4 44
11 Dobrudzha 30 20.2 28.5 -8.3 26
12 Slavia Sofia 30 24.7 35.6 -10.9 39
13 Montana 30 19.9 31.5 -11.6 17
14 Septemvri Sofia 30 23.1 38.3 -15.2 26
15 Beroe 30 21.9 41.1 -19.2 23
16 Spartak Varna 30 15.5 43.1 -27.6 27