Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
—
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 — Over 2.5 (3 goals) — N/A
- Both Teams To Score — No — N/A
- 1X2 — Inter — N/A
- Correct Score Insights — 3-0 — N/A
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 4.10) — 3 goals materialised
- Inter attacking xG significantly stronger (3.99 vs 0.11)
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
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Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Inter 3.99 — Slavia Praha 0.11
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Sep 30, 2025 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
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FT Full-time result Inter win · 3–0
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Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
—
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
45/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
- High xG deviation from league baseline (196%+)
Evidence
★★★★★
- Strong model lean
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
47/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Inter win · Inter 3–0 Slavia Praha
Prediction
—
Decision Grade
—
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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UEFA Champions League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 | Bayern München | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| 4 | Tottenham | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 5 | Barcelona | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 8 | Manchester City | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 9 | Real Madrid | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 10 | Inter | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 11 | Paris Saint Germain | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 13 | Juventus | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 14 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 15 | Atalanta | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 16 | Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 17 | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 18 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 19 | Club Brugge KV | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 20 | Galatasaray | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 21 | Monaco | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 22 | Qarabag | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 23 | Bodo/Glimt | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 24 | Benfica | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 25 | Marseille | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 26 | Pafos | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 27 | Union St. Gilloise | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 28 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 29 | Athletic Club | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 30 | Napoli | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 31 | FC Copenhagen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 32 | Ajax | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 33 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 34 | Slavia Praha | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 35 | Villarreal | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| 36 | Kairat Almaty | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 8 | 23 | 4 | +19 | 24 |
| 2 | Bayern München | 8 | 22 | 8 | +14 | 21 |
| 3 | Barcelona | 8 | 22 | 14 | +8 | 16 |
| 4 | Paris Saint Germain | 8 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 14 |
| 5 | Real Madrid | 8 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 15 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 8 | 20 | 8 | +12 | 18 |
| 7 | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 11 |
| 8 | Tottenham | 8 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 17 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 8 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 14 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 8 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 16 |
| 11 | Sporting CP | 8 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 16 |
| 12 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 13 |
| 13 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | Inter | 8 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 15 |
| 15 | Manchester City | 8 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 16 |
| 16 | Club Brugge KV | 8 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 10 |
| 17 | Juventus | 8 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 13 |
| 18 | Bodo/Glimt | 8 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 9 |
| 19 | Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 12 |
| 20 | Qarabag | 8 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 10 |
| 21 | FC Copenhagen | 8 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 8 |
| 22 | Marseille | 8 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 9 |
| 23 | Atalanta | 8 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 13 |
| 24 | Benfica | 8 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 9 |
| 25 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 8 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 11 |
| 26 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 4 |
| 27 | Galatasaray | 8 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
| 28 | Athletic Club | 8 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 29 | Napoli | 8 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 8 |
| 30 | Pafos | 8 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 9 |
| 31 | Monaco | 8 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 10 |
| 32 | Union St. Gilloise | 8 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 9 |
| 33 | Ajax | 8 | 8 | 21 | -13 | 6 |
| 34 | Kairat Almaty | 8 | 7 | 22 | -15 | 1 |
| 35 | Villarreal | 8 | 5 | 18 | -13 | 1 |
| 36 | Slavia Praha | 8 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 8 | 21.5 | 6.3 | +15.2 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | 20.5 | 6.2 | +14.3 | 24 |
| 3 | Newcastle | 8 | 23.5 | 10.9 | +12.6 | 14 |
| 4 | Bayern München | 8 | 20.1 | 8.3 | +11.8 | 21 |
| 5 | Inter | 8 | 16.4 | 7.8 | +8.6 | 15 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 8 | 18.0 | 10.1 | +7.9 | 14 |
| 7 | Manchester City | 8 | 14.4 | 7.8 | +6.6 | 16 |
| 8 | Real Madrid | 8 | 18.9 | 13.1 | +5.8 | 15 |
| 9 | Chelsea | 8 | 13.7 | 9.2 | +4.5 | 16 |
| 10 | Tottenham | 8 | 12.7 | 8.8 | +3.9 | 17 |
| 11 | Barcelona | 8 | 14.4 | 11.0 | +3.4 | 16 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 8 | 13.5 | 10.1 | +3.4 | 13 |
| 13 | Sporting CP | 8 | 11.7 | 8.6 | +3.1 | 16 |
| 14 | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 13.6 | 10.8 | +2.8 | 11 |
| 15 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 19.5 | 17.1 | +2.4 | 13 |
| 16 | Juventus | 8 | 13.1 | 10.7 | +2.4 | 13 |
| 17 | Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 11.8 | 10.5 | +1.3 | 12 |
| 18 | Benfica | 8 | 10.5 | 9.5 | +1.0 | 9 |
| 19 | Monaco | 8 | 13.2 | 13.6 | -0.4 | 10 |
| 20 | Galatasaray | 8 | 12.3 | 13.8 | -1.5 | 10 |
| 21 | Athletic Club | 8 | 9.3 | 10.9 | -1.6 | 8 |
| 22 | Napoli | 8 | 10.7 | 12.9 | -2.2 | 8 |
| 23 | Villarreal | 8 | 9.7 | 12.2 | -2.5 | 1 |
| 24 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 8 | 9.6 | 12.4 | -2.8 | 11 |
| 25 | Marseille | 8 | 7.8 | 10.6 | -2.8 | 9 |
| 26 | Ajax | 8 | 9.3 | 12.7 | -3.4 | 6 |
| 27 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 12.1 | 16.1 | -4.0 | 8 |
| 28 | Club Brugge KV | 8 | 16.4 | 21.8 | -5.4 | 10 |
| 29 | FC Copenhagen | 8 | 11.1 | 16.8 | -5.7 | 8 |
| 30 | Bodo/Glimt | 8 | 14.7 | 20.9 | -6.2 | 9 |
| 31 | Slavia Praha | 8 | 9.5 | 17.7 | -8.2 | 3 |
| 32 | Union St. Gilloise | 8 | 10.4 | 18.7 | -8.3 | 9 |
| 33 | Pafos | 8 | 7.1 | 16.8 | -9.7 | 9 |
| 34 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 5.3 | 16.8 | -11.5 | 4 |
| 35 | Qarabag | 8 | 10.9 | 27.7 | -16.8 | 10 |
| 36 | Kairat Almaty | 8 | 6.0 | 24.1 | -18.1 | 1 |
