Predictions / Football / Bosnia. 1st League - FBiH / Tomislav vs Tuzla City

Prediction Audit: Tomislav vs Tuzla City Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tomislav Tomislav
Jun 07, 2026 - 15:30
4 1.53
0 1.05
xG Accuracy: 38%
Tuzla City Tuzla City

AI correctly predicted the Tomislav win.

The match finished 4–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Tomislav Tomislav ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.58) — 4 goals materialised
  • Tomislav attacking xG significantly stronger (1.53 vs 1.05)

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Tomislav win 4–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 07, 2026 · 18:33 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Tomislav 1.53 — Tuzla City 1.05
  2. Jun 07, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Tomislav win · 4–0
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1468224

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Tomislav win · Tomislav 4–0 Tuzla City
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 1st League - FBiH
  • Fixture: Tomislav vs Tuzla City
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-07 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 46.8% · Draw 28.8% · Away 24.5%
  • xG (showing): Tomislav 1.53 — Tuzla City 1.05 (total xG ≈ 2.58)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 52.3% · Over 2.5 47.6%); BTTS Yes (Yes 52.5% · No 47.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 52.5% · No 47.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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1st League - FBiH 1st League - FBiH — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Čelik 26 17 8 1 59
2 Stupčanica Olovo 26 12 5 9 41
3 Sloboda Tuzla 26 12 5 9 41
4 Jedinstvo Bihać 26 12 5 9 41
5 GOŠK Gabela 26 11 7 8 40
6 Travnik 26 10 7 9 37
7 TOŠK Tešanj 26 10 7 9 37
8 Radnik Hadžići 26 10 6 10 36
9 Tomislav 26 8 8 10 32
10 Igman Konjic 26 9 5 12 32
11 Budućnost Banovići 26 8 7 11 31
12 Bratstvo Gračanica 26 7 10 9 31
13 Vitez 26 8 4 14 28
14 Tuzla City 26 5 2 19 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Čelik 26 52 19 +33 59
2 Stupčanica Olovo 26 40 27 +13 41
3 Tomislav 26 38 35 +3 32
4 GOŠK Gabela 26 36 26 +10 40
5 Travnik 26 35 26 +9 37
6 TOŠK Tešanj 26 35 30 +5 37
7 Sloboda Tuzla 26 34 29 +5 41
8 Radnik Hadžići 26 34 37 -3 36
9 Budućnost Banovići 26 31 33 -2 31
10 Jedinstvo Bihać 26 29 36 -7 41
11 Igman Konjic 26 29 44 -15 32
12 Vitez 26 27 38 -11 28
13 Bratstvo Gračanica 26 26 28 -2 31
14 Tuzla City 26 20 58 -38 17
1st League - FBiH Bosnia. 1st League - FBiH Predictions