Predictions / Football / Bosnia. 1st League - FBiH / Igman Konjic vs Stupčanica Olovo

Prediction Audit: Igman Konjic vs Stupčanica Olovo Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Igman Konjic Igman Konjic
Jun 07, 2026 - 15:30
1 1.34
2 1.24
xG Accuracy: 74%
Stupčanica Olovo Stupčanica Olovo

The model missed the final outcome (Stupčanica Olovo win 1–2).

The model had projected Igman Konjic at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Igman Konjic Stupčanica Olovo ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Igman Konjic -4.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Igman Konjic 37.5% 42.1% -4.6 pp Aligned
Draw 29.7% 27.3% +2.4 pp Aligned
Stupčanica Olovo 32.8% 30.5% +2.2 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Stupčanica Olovo win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.58) — 3 goals materialised
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Stupčanica Olovo win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 07, 2026 · 18:33 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Igman Konjic 37.5% · Draw 29.8% · Stupčanica Olovo 32.8%
    • xG · Igman Konjic 1.34 — Stupčanica Olovo 1.24
  2. Jun 07, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Igman Konjic 2.11 · Draw 3.25 · Stupčanica Olovo 2.91
    • Implied 1X2 · Igman Konjic 42.1% · Draw 27.3% · Stupčanica Olovo 30.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 07, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Igman Konjic 2.11 · Draw 3.25 · Stupčanica Olovo 2.91
    • Implied 1X2 · Igman Konjic 42.1% · Draw 27.3% · Stupčanica Olovo 30.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 07, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Stupčanica Olovo win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 76/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 17:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2997737

Closing Odds 2.11
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Stupčanica Olovo win · Igman Konjic 1–2 Stupčanica Olovo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1st League - FBiH
  • Fixture: Igman Konjic vs Stupčanica Olovo
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-07 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.5% · Draw 29.8% · Away 32.8%
  • xG (showing): Igman Konjic 1.34 — Stupčanica Olovo 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.58)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 52.3% · Implied: 48.5% · Probability edge: +3.8 pts · Est. EV: +7.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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1st League - FBiH 1st League - FBiH — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Čelik 26 17 8 1 59
2 Stupčanica Olovo 26 12 5 9 41
3 Sloboda Tuzla 26 12 5 9 41
4 Jedinstvo Bihać 26 12 5 9 41
5 GOŠK Gabela 26 11 7 8 40
6 Travnik 26 10 7 9 37
7 TOŠK Tešanj 26 10 7 9 37
8 Radnik Hadžići 26 10 6 10 36
9 Tomislav 26 8 8 10 32
10 Igman Konjic 26 9 5 12 32
11 Budućnost Banovići 26 8 7 11 31
12 Bratstvo Gračanica 26 7 10 9 31
13 Vitez 26 8 4 14 28
14 Tuzla City 26 5 2 19 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Čelik 26 52 19 +33 59
2 Stupčanica Olovo 26 40 27 +13 41
3 Tomislav 26 38 35 +3 32
4 GOŠK Gabela 26 36 26 +10 40
5 Travnik 26 35 26 +9 37
6 TOŠK Tešanj 26 35 30 +5 37
7 Sloboda Tuzla 26 34 29 +5 41
8 Radnik Hadžići 26 34 37 -3 36
9 Budućnost Banovići 26 31 33 -2 31
10 Jedinstvo Bihać 26 29 36 -7 41
11 Igman Konjic 26 29 44 -15 32
12 Vitez 26 27 38 -11 28
13 Bratstvo Gračanica 26 26 28 -2 31
14 Tuzla City 26 20 58 -38 17
1st League - FBiH Bosnia. 1st League - FBiH Predictions