Prediction Audit: Bratstvo Gračanica vs Jedinstvo Bihać Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bratstvo Gračanica

Jun 07, 2026 - 15:30

2 1.47

2 1.11

xG Accuracy: 68%

Jedinstvo Bihać

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Bratstvo Gračanica at 43.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Bratstvo Gračanica Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Bratstvo Gračanica	43.8%	61.6%	-17.8 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.2%	22.1%	+7.1 pp	Model Higher
Jedinstvo Bihać	27.0%	16.3%	+10.7 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Bratstvo Gračanica's win probability at 61.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.8%, a difference of 17.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Bratstvo Gračanica than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.58) — 4 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
1X2: model leaned Bratstvo Gračanica; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Bratstvo Gračanica by 17.8 percentage points (61.6% vs model 43.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Jun 07, 2026 · 18:33 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Bratstvo Gračanica 43.8% · Draw 29.2% · Jedinstvo Bihać 26.9%
- xG · Bratstvo Gračanica 1.47 — Jedinstvo Bihać 1.11
Jun 07, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Bratstvo Gračanica 1.44 · Draw 4.02 · Jedinstvo Bihać 5.44
- Implied 1X2 · Bratstvo Gračanica 61.6% · Draw 22.1% · Jedinstvo Bihać 16.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jun 07, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Bratstvo Gračanica 1.44 · Draw 4.02 · Jedinstvo Bihać 5.44
- Implied 1X2 · Bratstvo Gračanica 61.6% · Draw 22.1% · Jedinstvo Bihać 16.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jun 07, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (18 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 10/100

Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 16:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1616147

Closing Odds 1.44

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Bratstvo Gračanica 2–2 Jedinstvo Bihać

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: 1st League - FBiH
Fixture: Bratstvo Gračanica vs Jedinstvo Bihać
Kickoff: 2026-06-07 15:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 43.8% · Draw 29.2% · Away 26.9%
xG (showing): Bratstvo Gračanica 1.47 — Jedinstvo Bihać 1.11 (total xG ≈ 2.58)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 52.3% · Over 2.5 47.6%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.2% · No 46.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.2% · No 46.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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1st League - FBiH — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Čelik	26	17	8	1	59
2	Stupčanica Olovo	26	12	5	9	41
3	Sloboda Tuzla	26	12	5	9	41
4	Jedinstvo Bihać	26	12	5	9	41
5	GOŠK Gabela	26	11	7	8	40
6	Travnik	26	10	7	9	37
7	TOŠK Tešanj	26	10	7	9	37
8	Radnik Hadžići	26	10	6	10	36
9	Tomislav	26	8	8	10	32
10	Igman Konjic	26	9	5	12	32
11	Budućnost Banovići	26	8	7	11	31
12	Bratstvo Gračanica	26	7	10	9	31
13	Vitez	26	8	4	14	28
14	Tuzla City	26	5	2	19	17

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Čelik	26	52	19	+33	59
2	Stupčanica Olovo	26	40	27	+13	41
3	Tomislav	26	38	35	+3	32
4	GOŠK Gabela	26	36	26	+10	40
5	Travnik	26	35	26	+9	37
6	TOŠK Tešanj	26	35	30	+5	37
7	Sloboda Tuzla	26	34	29	+5	41
8	Radnik Hadžići	26	34	37	-3	36
9	Budućnost Banovići	26	31	33	-2	31
10	Jedinstvo Bihać	26	29	36	-7	41
11	Igman Konjic	26	29	44	-15	32
12	Vitez	26	27	38	-11	28
13	Bratstvo Gračanica	26	26	28	-2	31
14	Tuzla City	26	20	58	-38	17