Predictions / Football / Bosnia. 1st League - FBiH / Čelik vs Igman Konjic

Prediction Audit: Čelik vs Igman Konjic Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Čelik Čelik
May 31, 2026 - 15:30
4 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 35%
Igman Konjic Igman Konjic

AI correctly predicted the Čelik win.

The match finished 4–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Čelik Čelik ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Čelik higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Čelik -27.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Čelik 41.8% 68.9% -27.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 19.9% +5.8 pp Model Higher
Igman Konjic 32.6% 11.2% +21.4 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Čelik's win probability at 68.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 27.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Čelik win 4–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Čelik higher (68.9% vs model 41.8%, 27.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Čelik win 4–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 30, 2026 · 19:42 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Čelik 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Igman Konjic 32.6%
    • xG · Čelik 1.45 — Igman Konjic 1.25
  2. May 30, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Čelik 1.30 · Draw 4.50 · Igman Konjic 8.00
    • Implied 1X2 · Čelik 68.9% · Draw 19.9% · Igman Konjic 11.2%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. May 30, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Čelik 1.30 · Draw 4.50 · Igman Konjic 8.00
    • Implied 1X2 · Čelik 68.9% · Draw 19.9% · Igman Konjic 11.2%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. May 31, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Čelik win · 4–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (27 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 03, 2026 · 03:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2911610

Closing Odds 1.3
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Čelik win · Čelik 4–0 Igman Konjic
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1st League - FBiH
  • Fixture: Čelik vs Igman Konjic
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-30 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Čelik 1.45 — Igman Konjic 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 46.9% · Over 2.5 53.1%); BTTS Yes (Yes 68.8% · No 31.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 68.8% · No 31.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (10.9%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming 1st League - FBiH Matches Track Čelik Next Match Prediction Track Igman Konjic Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Čelik & Igman Konjic!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
1st League - FBiH 1st League - FBiH — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Čelik 26 17 8 1 59
2 Stupčanica Olovo 26 12 5 9 41
3 Sloboda Tuzla 26 12 5 9 41
4 Jedinstvo Bihać 26 12 5 9 41
5 GOŠK Gabela 26 11 7 8 40
6 Travnik 26 10 7 9 37
7 TOŠK Tešanj 26 10 7 9 37
8 Radnik Hadžići 26 10 6 10 36
9 Tomislav 26 8 8 10 32
10 Igman Konjic 26 9 5 12 32
11 Budućnost Banovići 26 8 7 11 31
12 Bratstvo Gračanica 26 7 10 9 31
13 Vitez 26 8 4 14 28
14 Tuzla City 26 5 2 19 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Čelik 26 52 19 +33 59
2 Stupčanica Olovo 26 40 27 +13 41
3 Tomislav 26 38 35 +3 32
4 GOŠK Gabela 26 36 26 +10 40
5 Travnik 26 35 26 +9 37
6 TOŠK Tešanj 26 35 30 +5 37
7 Sloboda Tuzla 26 34 29 +5 41
8 Radnik Hadžići 26 34 37 -3 36
9 Budućnost Banovići 26 31 33 -2 31
10 Jedinstvo Bihać 26 29 36 -7 41
11 Igman Konjic 26 29 44 -15 32
12 Vitez 26 27 38 -11 28
13 Bratstvo Gračanica 26 26 28 -2 31
14 Tuzla City 26 20 58 -38 17
1st League - FBiH Bosnia. 1st League - FBiH Predictions