Prediction Audit: Sloboda Tuzla vs Jedinstvo Bihać Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sloboda Tuzla

May 24, 2026 - 15:30

1 1.45

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 82%

Jedinstvo Bihać

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Sloboda Tuzla at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Sloboda Tuzla Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Sloboda Tuzla	41.8%	58.1%	-16.3 pp	Market Higher
Draw	25.7%	24.1%	+1.5 pp	Aligned
Jedinstvo Bihać	32.6%	17.8%	+14.8 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Sloboda Tuzla's win probability at 58.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 16.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Sloboda Tuzla than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

1X2: model leaned Sloboda Tuzla; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sloboda Tuzla by 16.3 percentage points (58.1% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

May 24, 2026 · 18:58 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sloboda Tuzla 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Jedinstvo Bihać 32.6%
- xG · Sloboda Tuzla 1.45 — Jedinstvo Bihać 1.25
May 24, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sloboda Tuzla 1.53 · Draw 3.68 · Jedinstvo Bihać 4.99
- Implied 1X2 · Sloboda Tuzla 58.1% · Draw 24.1% · Jedinstvo Bihać 17.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
May 24, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sloboda Tuzla 1.53 · Draw 3.68 · Jedinstvo Bihać 4.99
- Implied 1X2 · Sloboda Tuzla 58.1% · Draw 24.1% · Jedinstvo Bihać 17.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
May 24, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (16 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 18/100

Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 07:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3648906

Closing Odds 1.53

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Sloboda Tuzla 1–1 Jedinstvo Bihać

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: 1st League - FBiH
Fixture: Sloboda Tuzla vs Jedinstvo Bihać
Kickoff: 2026-05-24 15:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Sloboda Tuzla 1.45 — Jedinstvo Bihać 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 55.7% · Over 2.5 44.3%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.9%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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1st League - FBiH — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Čelik	26	17	8	1	59
2	Stupčanica Olovo	26	12	5	9	41
3	Sloboda Tuzla	26	12	5	9	41
4	Jedinstvo Bihać	26	12	5	9	41
5	GOŠK Gabela	26	11	7	8	40
6	Travnik	26	10	7	9	37
7	TOŠK Tešanj	26	10	7	9	37
8	Radnik Hadžići	26	10	6	10	36
9	Tomislav	26	8	8	10	32
10	Igman Konjic	26	9	5	12	32
11	Budućnost Banovići	26	8	7	11	31
12	Bratstvo Gračanica	26	7	10	9	31
13	Vitez	26	8	4	14	28
14	Tuzla City	26	5	2	19	17

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Čelik	26	52	19	+33	59
2	Stupčanica Olovo	26	40	27	+13	41
3	Tomislav	26	38	35	+3	32
4	GOŠK Gabela	26	36	26	+10	40
5	Travnik	26	35	26	+9	37
6	TOŠK Tešanj	26	35	30	+5	37
7	Sloboda Tuzla	26	34	29	+5	41
8	Radnik Hadžići	26	34	37	-3	36
9	Budućnost Banovići	26	31	33	-2	31
10	Jedinstvo Bihać	26	29	36	-7	41
11	Igman Konjic	26	29	44	-15	32
12	Vitez	26	27	38	-11	28
13	Bratstvo Gračanica	26	26	28	-2	31
14	Tuzla City	26	20	58	-38	17