Predictions / Football / Bosnia. 1st League - FBiH / Stupčanica Olovo vs Sloboda Tuzla

Prediction Audit: Stupčanica Olovo vs Sloboda Tuzla Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Stupčanica Olovo Stupčanica Olovo
May 17, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
Sloboda Tuzla Sloboda Tuzla

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Stupčanica Olovo at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Stupčanica Olovo Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Stupčanica Olovo higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Stupčanica Olovo -20.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Stupčanica Olovo 41.8% 62.2% -20.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 20.7% +5.0 pp Aligned
Sloboda Tuzla 32.6% 17.1% +15.5 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Stupčanica Olovo's win probability at 62.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 20.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Stupčanica Olovo; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Stupčanica Olovo by 20.5 percentage points (62.3% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 16, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Stupčanica Olovo 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Sloboda Tuzla 32.6%
    • xG · Stupčanica Olovo 1.45 — Sloboda Tuzla 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Stupčanica Olovo 1.44 · Draw 4.33 · Sloboda Tuzla 5.25
    • Implied 1X2 · Stupčanica Olovo 62.2% · Draw 20.7% · Sloboda Tuzla 17.1%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. May 16, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Stupčanica Olovo 1.44 · Draw 4.33 · Sloboda Tuzla 5.25
    • Implied 1X2 · Stupčanica Olovo 62.2% · Draw 20.7% · Sloboda Tuzla 17.1%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. May 17, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (20 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 10:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1697210

Closing Odds 1.44
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Stupčanica Olovo 1–1 Sloboda Tuzla
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1st League - FBiH
  • Fixture: Stupčanica Olovo vs Sloboda Tuzla
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Stupčanica Olovo 1.45 — Sloboda Tuzla 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 53.1% · Over 2.5 46.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 59.7% · No 40.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 59.7% · No 40.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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1st League - FBiH 1st League - FBiH — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Čelik 26 17 8 1 59
2 Stupčanica Olovo 26 12 5 9 41
3 Sloboda Tuzla 26 12 5 9 41
4 Jedinstvo Bihać 26 12 5 9 41
5 GOŠK Gabela 26 11 7 8 40
6 Travnik 26 10 7 9 37
7 TOŠK Tešanj 26 10 7 9 37
8 Radnik Hadžići 26 10 6 10 36
9 Tomislav 26 8 8 10 32
10 Igman Konjic 26 9 5 12 32
11 Budućnost Banovići 26 8 7 11 31
12 Bratstvo Gračanica 26 7 10 9 31
13 Vitez 26 8 4 14 28
14 Tuzla City 26 5 2 19 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Čelik 26 52 19 +33 59
2 Stupčanica Olovo 26 40 27 +13 41
3 Tomislav 26 38 35 +3 32
4 GOŠK Gabela 26 36 26 +10 40
5 Travnik 26 35 26 +9 37
6 TOŠK Tešanj 26 35 30 +5 37
7 Sloboda Tuzla 26 34 29 +5 41
8 Radnik Hadžići 26 34 37 -3 36
9 Budućnost Banovići 26 31 33 -2 31
10 Jedinstvo Bihać 26 29 36 -7 41
11 Igman Konjic 26 29 44 -15 32
12 Vitez 26 27 38 -11 28
13 Bratstvo Gračanica 26 26 28 -2 31
14 Tuzla City 26 20 58 -38 17
1st League - FBiH Bosnia. 1st League - FBiH Predictions