The model missed the final outcome (Čelik win 0–3).
The model had projected Vitez at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Vitez Čelik ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitez | 41.8% | 23.5% | +18.3 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 25.7% | 29.0% | -3.3 pp | Aligned |
| Čelik | 32.6% | 47.6% | -15.0 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Vitez's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.5%, a difference of 18.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Čelik win 0–3.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Vitez.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Vitez; match finished Čelik
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Vitez by 18.3 percentage points (23.5% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Vitez 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Čelik 32.6%
- xG · Vitez 1.45 — Čelik 1.25
-
May 03, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Vitez 3.79 · Draw 3.07 · Čelik 1.87
- Implied 1X2 · Vitez 23.5% · Draw 29.0% · Čelik 47.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 03, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Vitez 3.79 · Draw 3.07 · Čelik 1.87
- Implied 1X2 · Vitez 23.5% · Draw 29.0% · Čelik 47.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 03, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Čelik win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (18 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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1st League - FBiH — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Čelik | 26 | 17 | 8 | 1 | 59 |
| 2 | Stupčanica Olovo | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 41 |
| 3 | Sloboda Tuzla | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 41 |
| 4 | Jedinstvo Bihać | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 41 |
| 5 | GOŠK Gabela | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 40 |
| 6 | Travnik | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 37 |
| 7 | TOŠK Tešanj | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 37 |
| 8 | Radnik Hadžići | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 36 |
| 9 | Tomislav | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 32 |
| 10 | Igman Konjic | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 32 |
| 11 | Budućnost Banovići | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 31 |
| 12 | Bratstvo Gračanica | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 31 |
| 13 | Vitez | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 28 |
| 14 | Tuzla City | 26 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 17 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Čelik | 26 | 52 | 19 | +33 | 59 |
| 2 | Stupčanica Olovo | 26 | 40 | 27 | +13 | 41 |
| 3 | Tomislav | 26 | 38 | 35 | +3 | 32 |
| 4 | GOŠK Gabela | 26 | 36 | 26 | +10 | 40 |
| 5 | Travnik | 26 | 35 | 26 | +9 | 37 |
| 6 | TOŠK Tešanj | 26 | 35 | 30 | +5 | 37 |
| 7 | Sloboda Tuzla | 26 | 34 | 29 | +5 | 41 |
| 8 | Radnik Hadžići | 26 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 36 |
| 9 | Budućnost Banovići | 26 | 31 | 33 | -2 | 31 |
| 10 | Jedinstvo Bihać | 26 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 41 |
| 11 | Igman Konjic | 26 | 29 | 44 | -15 | 32 |
| 12 | Vitez | 26 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 28 |
| 13 | Bratstvo Gračanica | 26 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 31 |
| 14 | Tuzla City | 26 | 20 | 58 | -38 | 17 |
