The model missed the final outcome (Čelik win 1–2).
The model had projected Tomislav at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
C
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Tomislav Čelik ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Tomislav; match finished Čelik
Market lesson
The full-time result was Čelik win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Tomislav 1.45 — Čelik 1.25
-
Mar 22, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Čelik win · 1–2
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FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Čelik win · Tomislav 1–2 Čelik
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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1st League - FBiH — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Čelik | 26 | 17 | 8 | 1 | 59 |
| 2 | Stupčanica Olovo | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 41 |
| 3 | Sloboda Tuzla | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 41 |
| 4 | Jedinstvo Bihać | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 41 |
| 5 | GOŠK Gabela | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 40 |
| 6 | Travnik | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 37 |
| 7 | TOŠK Tešanj | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 37 |
| 8 | Radnik Hadžići | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 36 |
| 9 | Tomislav | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 32 |
| 10 | Igman Konjic | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 32 |
| 11 | Budućnost Banovići | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 31 |
| 12 | Bratstvo Gračanica | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 31 |
| 13 | Vitez | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 28 |
| 14 | Tuzla City | 26 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 17 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Čelik | 26 | 52 | 19 | +33 | 59 |
| 2 | Stupčanica Olovo | 26 | 40 | 27 | +13 | 41 |
| 3 | Tomislav | 26 | 38 | 35 | +3 | 32 |
| 4 | GOŠK Gabela | 26 | 36 | 26 | +10 | 40 |
| 5 | Travnik | 26 | 35 | 26 | +9 | 37 |
| 6 | TOŠK Tešanj | 26 | 35 | 30 | +5 | 37 |
| 7 | Sloboda Tuzla | 26 | 34 | 29 | +5 | 41 |
| 8 | Radnik Hadžići | 26 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 36 |
| 9 | Budućnost Banovići | 26 | 31 | 33 | -2 | 31 |
| 10 | Jedinstvo Bihać | 26 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 41 |
| 11 | Igman Konjic | 26 | 29 | 44 | -15 | 32 |
| 12 | Vitez | 26 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 28 |
| 13 | Bratstvo Gračanica | 26 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 31 |
| 14 | Tuzla City | 26 | 20 | 58 | -38 | 17 |
