The model missed the final outcome (Warriors win 0–4).
The model had projected Hong Kong FC at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Hong Kong FC Warriors ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-4 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Hong Kong FC; match finished Warriors
Market lesson
The full-time result was Warriors win 0–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Hong Kong FC 1.45 — Warriors 1.25
-
Mar 15, 2026 · 08:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Warriors win · 0–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
2.39
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Warriors win · Hong Kong FC 0–4 Warriors
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 41.8%
- Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=2)
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitchee | 18 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 50 |
| 2 | Warriors | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 36 |
| 3 | North District | 18 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 31 |
| 4 | Wofoo Tai Po | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 31 |
| 5 | Eastern | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 |
| 6 | Kowloon City | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 21 |
| 7 | Eastern District | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| 8 | Southern District | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 9 | BC Rangers | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 17 |
| 10 | Hong Kong FC | 18 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitchee | 18 | 47 | 15 | +32 | 50 |
| 2 | Warriors | 18 | 47 | 19 | +28 | 36 |
| 3 | Wofoo Tai Po | 18 | 36 | 26 | +10 | 31 |
| 4 | North District | 18 | 36 | 27 | +9 | 31 |
| 5 | Eastern | 18 | 29 | 28 | +1 | 25 |
| 6 | Kowloon City | 18 | 22 | 33 | -11 | 21 |
| 7 | BC Rangers | 18 | 20 | 38 | -18 | 17 |
| 8 | Southern District | 18 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 18 |
| 9 | Eastern District | 18 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 19 |
| 10 | Hong Kong FC | 18 | 12 | 53 | -41 | 4 |
