Predictions / Football / Azerbaijan. Premyer Liqa / Sumqayıt vs Qarabag

Prediction Audit: Sumqayıt vs Qarabag Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sumqayıt Sumqayıt
May 22, 2026 - 15:30
3 1.45
4 1.25
xG Accuracy: 31%
Qarabag Qarabag

The model missed the final outcome (Qarabag win 3–4).

The model had projected Sumqayıt at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sumqayıt Qarabag ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 3-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Qarabag higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Qarabag -37.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sumqayıt 41.8% 12.2% +29.5 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 17.7% +8.0 pp Model Higher
Qarabag 32.6% 70.1% -37.5 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Qarabag's win probability at 70.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 37.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Qarabag win 3–4.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 7 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Sumqayıt; match finished Qarabag

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sumqayıt by 37.5 percentage points (79.3% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 23, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sumqayıt 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Qarabag 32.6%
    • xG · Sumqayıt 1.45 — Qarabag 1.25
  2. May 23, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sumqayıt 7.51 · Draw 5.19 · Qarabag 1.31
    • Implied 1X2 · Sumqayıt 12.2% · Draw 17.7% · Qarabag 70.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 23, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sumqayıt 7.51 · Draw 5.19 · Qarabag 1.31
    • Implied 1X2 · Sumqayıt 12.2% · Draw 17.7% · Qarabag 70.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 22, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Qarabag win · 3–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 30/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (38 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 8/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 17:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3456119

Closing Odds 1.31
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Qarabag win · Sumqayıt 3–4 Qarabag
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Sumqayıt; market prices Qarabag instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Sumqayıt 1.45 xG vs Qarabag 1.25 → Sumqayıt 41.8%
  • Market: Qarabag ~12.2% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 48.1% · Over 2.5 51.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 60.9% · No 39.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Premyer Liqa Premyer Liqa — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sabah FA 33 24 6 3 78
2 Qarabag 33 21 6 6 69
3 Turan 33 17 8 8 59
4 Neftchi Baku 33 16 11 6 59
5 Zira 33 13 14 6 53
6 Araz 33 13 7 13 46
7 Sumqayıt 33 12 5 16 41
8 Keshla FC 33 9 11 13 38
9 Mil-Muğan 33 7 13 13 34
10 Kapaz 33 8 3 22 27
11 Qabala 33 7 6 20 27
12 Karvan 33 3 6 24 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sabah FA 33 75 25 +50 78
2 Qarabag 33 71 27 +44 69
3 Neftchi Baku 33 57 32 +25 59
4 Sumqayıt 33 45 49 -4 41
5 Turan 33 44 27 +17 59
6 Araz 33 44 58 -14 46
7 Zira 33 43 36 +7 53
8 Qabala 33 32 49 -17 27
9 Keshla FC 33 31 40 -9 38
10 Kapaz 33 25 61 -36 27
11 Mil-Muğan 33 23 43 -20 34
12 Karvan 33 23 66 -43 15
Premyer Liqa Azerbaijan. Premyer Liqa Predictions