Predictions / Football / Azerbaijan. Premyer Liqa / Mil-Muğan vs Karvan

Prediction Audit: Mil-Muğan vs Karvan Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Mil-Muğan Mil-Muğan
May 24, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
Karvan Karvan

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Mil-Muğan at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Mil-Muğan Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Karvan considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Karvan +10.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Mil-Muğan 41.8% 51.1% -9.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 26.4% -0.8 pp Aligned
Karvan 32.6% 22.5% +10.1 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Karvan's win probability at 32.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 22.5%, a difference of 10.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Karvan.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned Mil-Muğan; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Mil-Muğan by 10.1 percentage points (31.7% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 23, 2026 · 18:32 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Mil-Muğan 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Karvan 32.6%
    • xG · Mil-Muğan 1.45 — Karvan 1.25
  2. May 23, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Mil-Muğan 1.79 · Draw 3.46 · Karvan 4.07
    • Implied 1X2 · Mil-Muğan 51.1% · Draw 26.4% · Karvan 22.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 23, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Mil-Muğan 1.79 · Draw 3.46 · Karvan 4.07
    • Implied 1X2 · Mil-Muğan 51.1% · Draw 26.4% · Karvan 22.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 24, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 49/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 14:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1604459

Closing Odds 4.07
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Mil-Muğan 1–1 Karvan
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Premyer Liqa
  • Fixture: Mil-Muğan vs Karvan
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Mil-Muğan 1.45 — Karvan 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 78.1% · Implied: 48.5% · Probability edge: +29.6 pts · Est. EV: +52.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 21.9% · No 78.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (13.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Premyer Liqa Premyer Liqa — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sabah FA 33 24 6 3 78
2 Qarabag 33 21 6 6 69
3 Turan 33 17 8 8 59
4 Neftchi Baku 33 16 11 6 59
5 Zira 33 13 14 6 53
6 Araz 33 13 7 13 46
7 Sumqayıt 33 12 5 16 41
8 Keshla FC 33 9 11 13 38
9 Mil-Muğan 33 7 13 13 34
10 Kapaz 33 8 3 22 27
11 Qabala 33 7 6 20 27
12 Karvan 33 3 6 24 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sabah FA 33 75 25 +50 78
2 Qarabag 33 71 27 +44 69
3 Neftchi Baku 33 57 32 +25 59
4 Sumqayıt 33 45 49 -4 41
5 Turan 33 44 27 +17 59
6 Araz 33 44 58 -14 46
7 Zira 33 43 36 +7 53
8 Qabala 33 32 49 -17 27
9 Keshla FC 33 31 40 -9 38
10 Kapaz 33 25 61 -36 27
11 Mil-Muğan 33 23 43 -20 34
12 Karvan 33 23 66 -43 15
Premyer Liqa Azerbaijan. Premyer Liqa Predictions