Predictions / Football / Azerbaijan. Premyer Liqa / Turan vs Karvan

Prediction Audit: Turan vs Karvan Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Turan Turan
May 10, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Karvan Karvan

AI correctly predicted the Turan win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Turan Turan ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 2-0, 1-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Turan higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Turan -32.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Turan 41.8% 74.3% -32.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 16.6% +9.1 pp Model Higher
Karvan 32.6% 9.1% +23.5 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Turan's win probability at 74.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 32.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Turan win 1–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Turan higher (74.4% vs model 41.8%, 32.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Turan win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Turan 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Karvan 32.6%
    • xG · Turan 1.45 — Karvan 1.25
  2. May 09, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Turan 1.23 · Draw 5.51 · Karvan 10.08
    • Implied 1X2 · Turan 74.3% · Draw 16.6% · Karvan 9.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 09, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Turan 1.23 · Draw 5.51 · Karvan 10.08
    • Implied 1X2 · Turan 74.3% · Draw 16.6% · Karvan 9.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 10, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Turan win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 33/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (33 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 06, 2026 · 01:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3090623

Closing Odds 1.23
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Turan win · Turan 1–0 Karvan
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Turan; market prices Turan instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Turan 1.45 xG vs Karvan 1.25 → Turan 41.8%
  • Market: Turan ~74.3% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 57.0% · Over 2.5 43.0%); BTTS No (Yes 40.0% · No 60.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Premyer Liqa Premyer Liqa — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sabah FA 33 24 6 3 78
2 Qarabag 33 21 6 6 69
3 Turan 33 17 8 8 59
4 Neftchi Baku 33 16 11 6 59
5 Zira 33 13 14 6 53
6 Araz 33 13 7 13 46
7 Sumqayıt 33 12 5 16 41
8 Keshla FC 33 9 11 13 38
9 Mil-Muğan 33 7 13 13 34
10 Kapaz 33 8 3 22 27
11 Qabala 33 7 6 20 27
12 Karvan 33 3 6 24 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sabah FA 33 75 25 +50 78
2 Qarabag 33 71 27 +44 69
3 Neftchi Baku 33 57 32 +25 59
4 Sumqayıt 33 45 49 -4 41
5 Turan 33 44 27 +17 59
6 Araz 33 44 58 -14 46
7 Zira 33 43 36 +7 53
8 Qabala 33 32 49 -17 27
9 Keshla FC 33 31 40 -9 38
10 Kapaz 33 25 61 -36 27
11 Mil-Muğan 33 23 43 -20 34
12 Karvan 33 23 66 -43 15
Premyer Liqa Azerbaijan. Premyer Liqa Predictions