Predictions / Football / USA. USL Super League / Spokane Zephyr W vs DC Power W

Prediction Audit: Spokane Zephyr W vs DC Power W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Spokane Zephyr W Spokane Zephyr W
May 10, 2026 - 02:30
1 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
DC Power W DC Power W

AI correctly predicted the Spokane Zephyr W win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Spokane Zephyr W Spokane Zephyr W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Spokane Zephyr W +4.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Spokane Zephyr W 41.8% 37.1% +4.7 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 30.1% -4.4 pp Aligned
DC Power W 32.6% 32.9% -0.3 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Spokane Zephyr W win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Spokane Zephyr W win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 10, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Spokane Zephyr W 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · DC Power W 32.6%
    • xG · Spokane Zephyr W 1.45 — DC Power W 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 00:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Spokane Zephyr W 2.44 · Draw 3.01 · DC Power W 2.75
    • Implied 1X2 · Spokane Zephyr W 37.1% · Draw 30.1% · DC Power W 32.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 10, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Spokane Zephyr W 2.44 · Draw 3.01 · DC Power W 2.75
    • Implied 1X2 · Spokane Zephyr W 37.1% · Draw 30.1% · DC Power W 32.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 10, 2026 · 02:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Spokane Zephyr W win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 76/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1619670

Closing Odds 2.44
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Spokane Zephyr W win · Spokane Zephyr W 1–0 DC Power W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: USL Super League
  • Fixture: Spokane Zephyr W vs DC Power W
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 01:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Spokane Zephyr W 1.45 — DC Power W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 59.6% · Implied: 52.2% · Probability edge: +7.4 pts · Est. EV: +13.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 43.6% · No 56.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.2%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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USL Super League USL Super League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lexington W 28 14 11 3 53
2 Sporting JAX 28 16 5 7 53
3 Carolina Ascent W 28 15 6 7 51
4 Dallas Trinity W 28 11 7 10 40
5 Spokane Zephyr W 28 10 9 9 39
6 DC Power W 28 8 9 11 33
7 Brooklyn W 28 6 8 14 26
8 Tampa Bay Sun W 28 5 9 14 24
9 Fort Lauderdale United W 28 5 8 15 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sporting JAX 28 54 32 +22 53
2 Lexington W 28 50 24 +26 53
3 Carolina Ascent W 28 39 27 +12 51
4 Dallas Trinity W 28 36 40 -4 40
5 Spokane Zephyr W 28 34 28 +6 39
6 DC Power W 28 34 32 +2 33
7 Brooklyn W 28 31 44 -13 26
8 Fort Lauderdale United W 28 30 62 -32 23
9 Tampa Bay Sun W 28 27 46 -19 24
USL Super League USA. USL Super League Predictions