The model missed the final outcome (Carolina Ascent W win 0–3).
The model had projected Fort Lauderdale United W at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Fort Lauderdale United W Carolina Ascent W ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Lauderdale United W | 41.8% | 18.0% | +23.8 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 25.7% | 24.7% | +1.0 pp | Aligned |
| Carolina Ascent W | 32.6% | 57.3% | -24.7 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Carolina Ascent W's win probability at 57.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 24.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Carolina Ascent W win 0–3.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Fort Lauderdale United W; match finished Carolina Ascent W
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Fort Lauderdale United W by 24.7 percentage points (66.5% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
May 09, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Fort Lauderdale United W 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Carolina Ascent W 32.6%
- xG · Fort Lauderdale United W 1.45 — Carolina Ascent W 1.25
-
May 09, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Fort Lauderdale United W 5.00 · Draw 3.64 · Carolina Ascent W 1.57
- Implied 1X2 · Fort Lauderdale United W 18.0% · Draw 24.7% · Carolina Ascent W 57.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 09, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Fort Lauderdale United W 5.00 · Draw 3.64 · Carolina Ascent W 1.57
- Implied 1X2 · Fort Lauderdale United W 18.0% · Draw 24.7% · Carolina Ascent W 57.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 09, 2026 · 23:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Carolina Ascent W win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (25 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotProbability Calibration
- Expected: 41.8%
- Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=2)
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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USL Super League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lexington W | 28 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 53 |
| 2 | Sporting JAX | 28 | 16 | 5 | 7 | 53 |
| 3 | Carolina Ascent W | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 51 |
| 4 | Dallas Trinity W | 28 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 40 |
| 5 | Spokane Zephyr W | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 39 |
| 6 | DC Power W | 28 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 33 |
| 7 | Brooklyn W | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 26 |
| 8 | Tampa Bay Sun W | 28 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 24 |
| 9 | Fort Lauderdale United W | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 23 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting JAX | 28 | 54 | 32 | +22 | 53 |
| 2 | Lexington W | 28 | 50 | 24 | +26 | 53 |
| 3 | Carolina Ascent W | 28 | 39 | 27 | +12 | 51 |
| 4 | Dallas Trinity W | 28 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 40 |
| 5 | Spokane Zephyr W | 28 | 34 | 28 | +6 | 39 |
| 6 | DC Power W | 28 | 34 | 32 | +2 | 33 |
| 7 | Brooklyn W | 28 | 31 | 44 | -13 | 26 |
| 8 | Fort Lauderdale United W | 28 | 30 | 62 | -32 | 23 |
| 9 | Tampa Bay Sun W | 28 | 27 | 46 | -19 | 24 |
