The model missed the final outcome (Dallas Trinity W win 0–2).
The model had projected Tampa Bay Sun W at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Tampa Bay Sun W Dallas Trinity W ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Sun W | 41.8% | 35.6% | +6.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 25.7% | 29.3% | -3.6 pp | Aligned |
| Dallas Trinity W | 32.6% | 35.1% | -2.5 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Tampa Bay Sun W's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 35.6%, a difference of 6.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Dallas Trinity W win 0–2.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Tampa Bay Sun W.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Tampa Bay Sun W; match finished Dallas Trinity W
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Tampa Bay Sun W by 6.1 percentage points (35.7% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
May 09, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Tampa Bay Sun W 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Dallas Trinity W 32.6%
- xG · Tampa Bay Sun W 1.45 — Dallas Trinity W 1.25
-
May 09, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Tampa Bay Sun W 2.54 · Draw 3.09 · Dallas Trinity W 2.58
- Implied 1X2 · Tampa Bay Sun W 35.6% · Draw 29.3% · Dallas Trinity W 35.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 09, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Tampa Bay Sun W 2.54 · Draw 3.09 · Dallas Trinity W 2.58
- Implied 1X2 · Tampa Bay Sun W 35.6% · Draw 29.3% · Dallas Trinity W 35.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 09, 2026 · 23:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Dallas Trinity W win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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USL Super League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lexington W | 28 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 53 |
| 2 | Sporting JAX | 28 | 16 | 5 | 7 | 53 |
| 3 | Carolina Ascent W | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 51 |
| 4 | Dallas Trinity W | 28 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 40 |
| 5 | Spokane Zephyr W | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 39 |
| 6 | DC Power W | 28 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 33 |
| 7 | Brooklyn W | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 26 |
| 8 | Tampa Bay Sun W | 28 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 24 |
| 9 | Fort Lauderdale United W | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 23 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting JAX | 28 | 54 | 32 | +22 | 53 |
| 2 | Lexington W | 28 | 50 | 24 | +26 | 53 |
| 3 | Carolina Ascent W | 28 | 39 | 27 | +12 | 51 |
| 4 | Dallas Trinity W | 28 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 40 |
| 5 | Spokane Zephyr W | 28 | 34 | 28 | +6 | 39 |
| 6 | DC Power W | 28 | 34 | 32 | +2 | 33 |
| 7 | Brooklyn W | 28 | 31 | 44 | -13 | 26 |
| 8 | Fort Lauderdale United W | 28 | 30 | 62 | -32 | 23 |
| 9 | Tampa Bay Sun W | 28 | 27 | 46 | -19 | 24 |
