Predictions / Football / Macedonia. Second League / Pobeda vs FK Prespa Resen

Prediction Audit: Pobeda vs FK Prespa Resen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Pobeda Pobeda
Mar 03, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.49
5 1.23
xG Accuracy: 31%
FK Prespa Resen FK Prespa Resen

The model missed the final outcome (FK Prespa Resen win 1–5).

The model had projected Pobeda at 43.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Pobeda FK Prespa Resen ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 1-5 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.72) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Pobeda; match finished FK Prespa Resen
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was FK Prespa Resen win 1–5, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • xG · Pobeda 1.49 — FK Prespa Resen 1.23
  2. Mar 03, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result FK Prespa Resen win · 1–5
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 10, 2026 · 07:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3513274

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result FK Prespa Resen win · Pobeda 1–5 FK Prespa Resen
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Second League Second League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Shkëndija Haraçinë 29 20 6 3 66
2 Bregalnica Štip 29 20 5 4 65
3 Skopje 28 21 2 5 65
4 Ohrid 29 20 5 4 65
5 Belasica 29 17 4 9 55
6 Osogovo 29 16 5 8 53
7 Detonit Plachkovica 29 15 7 8 52
8 Novaci 29 15 5 9 50
9 Kozuv Gevgelija 29 11 9 9 42
10 Teteks 29 12 3 14 39
11 Sasa 29 9 9 11 36
12 Vardar Negotino 29 6 4 19 22
13 FK Prespa Resen 29 5 0 24 15
14 Sloga Vinica 29 4 3 22 15
15 Pobeda 30 4 2 24 14
16 Golemo Konjari 29 2 1 26 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Ohrid 29 71 15 +56 65
2 Bregalnica Štip 29 64 18 +46 65
3 Shkëndija Haraçinë 29 63 18 +45 66
4 Skopje 28 59 18 +41 65
5 Belasica 29 54 22 +32 55
6 Detonit Plachkovica 29 52 23 +29 52
7 Osogovo 29 50 24 +26 53
8 Teteks 29 49 42 +7 39
9 Kozuv Gevgelija 29 45 26 +19 42
10 Novaci 29 44 28 +16 50
11 Sasa 29 44 49 -5 36
12 Vardar Negotino 29 37 90 -53 22
13 Sloga Vinica 29 30 77 -47 15
14 FK Prespa Resen 29 29 73 -44 15
15 Pobeda 30 21 105 -84 14
16 Golemo Konjari 29 15 103 -88 7