The model missed the final outcome (Lommel U21 win 2–4).
The model had projected Lierse K. U21 at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
C
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 draw Lommel U21 ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 1-3, 2-2, 0-2 2-4 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 6 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned draw; match finished Lommel U21
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Lommel U21 win 2–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
May 08, 2026 · 03:16 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Lierse K. U21 1.45 — Lommel U21 1.25
-
May 15, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Lommel U21 win · 2–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Lommel U21 win · Lierse K. U21 2–4 Lommel U21
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Reserve Pro League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lommel U21 | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 47 |
| 1 | Patro Eisden U21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2 | Westerlo U21 | 22 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 47 |
| 3 | Kortrijk U21 | 21 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 41 |
| 3 | Francs Borains U21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | RWDM U21 | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 41 |
| 4 | RAAL La Louviere U21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | RFC Seraing Reserve U21 | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 40 |
| 7 | Waasland-Beveren U21 | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 29 |
| 8 | Lierse K. U21 | 21 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 28 |
| 10 | K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 | 21 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 23 |
| 12 | Sporting Charleroi II | 20 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 14 |
| 13 | RFC de Liege U21 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 9 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kortrijk U21 | 21 | 66 | 30 | +36 | 41 |
| 2 | RFC Seraing Reserve U21 | 23 | 61 | 36 | +25 | 40 |
| 3 | RWDM U21 | 22 | 50 | 30 | +20 | 41 |
| 4 | Lommel U21 | 21 | 47 | 22 | +25 | 47 |
| 5 | Westerlo U21 | 22 | 46 | 32 | +14 | 47 |
| 6 | Waasland-Beveren U21 | 22 | 44 | 37 | +7 | 29 |
| 7 | K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 | 21 | 43 | 47 | -4 | 23 |
| 8 | Lierse K. U21 | 21 | 40 | 45 | -5 | 28 |
| 9 | Sporting Charleroi II | 20 | 26 | 52 | -26 | 14 |
| 10 | RFC de Liege U21 | 21 | 26 | 81 | -55 | 9 |
| 11 | Patro Eisden U21 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Francs Borains U21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | RAAL La Louviere U21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
