Predictions / Football / Germany. 2. Frauen Bundesliga / SC Sand W vs Stuttgart

Prediction Audit: SC Sand W vs Stuttgart Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

SC Sand W SC Sand W
May 17, 2026 - 12:00
2 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 70%
Stuttgart Stuttgart

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected SC Sand W at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 SC Sand W Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 2-2, 2-1, 1-3 2-2 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned SC Sand W; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 16:04 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · SC Sand W 1.45 — Stuttgart 1.25
  2. May 17, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 14:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1606794

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · SC Sand W 2–2 Stuttgart
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 2. Frauen Bundesliga
  • Fixture: SC Sand W vs Stuttgart
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-17 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): SC Sand W 1.45 — Stuttgart 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 27.7% · Over 2.5 72.3%); BTTS Yes (Yes 80.2% · No 19.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 80.2% · No 19.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (8.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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2. Frauen Bundesliga 2. Frauen Bundesliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Stuttgart 26 17 7 2 58
2 Mainz 05 26 17 4 5 55
3 SC Sand W 26 16 5 5 53
4 Meppen 26 15 4 7 49
5 Viktoria Berlin W 26 12 9 5 45
6 Andernach W 26 10 8 8 38
7 Ingolstadt 26 12 2 12 38
8 Eintracht Frankfurt II W 26 9 6 11 33
9 Bochum 26 9 5 12 32
10 Borussia Monchengladbach W 26 9 4 13 31
11 Turbine Potsdam W 26 9 3 14 30
12 Bayern München II W 26 8 3 15 27
13 Wolfsburg II W 26 6 1 19 19
14 Warbeyen 26 1 3 22 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Stuttgart 26 81 33 +48 58
2 Mainz 05 26 77 29 +48 55
3 Meppen 26 56 26 +30 49
4 SC Sand W 26 53 26 +27 53
5 Andernach W 26 46 44 +2 38
6 Ingolstadt 26 45 48 -3 38
7 Viktoria Berlin W 26 41 20 +21 45
8 Bayern München II W 26 40 64 -24 27
9 Borussia Monchengladbach W 26 39 53 -14 31
10 Eintracht Frankfurt II W 26 38 38 0 33
11 Wolfsburg II W 26 38 75 -37 19
12 Turbine Potsdam W 26 37 50 -13 30
13 Bochum 26 33 40 -7 32
14 Warbeyen 26 21 99 -78 6
2. Frauen Bundesliga Germany. 2. Frauen Bundesliga Predictions